Tag Archives: stats

Position- And Shot-Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part V): Total Scoring

Having now covered insidemid-range3-pt, and free throw scoring, the last mile of the journey brings us to the total scoring rating. Luckily (for you, dear reader), there really is no more math involved other than adding up the other four ratings, since they are all on the same scale. You might want to catch up on those previous articles first and then continue after the jump to see who had the highest total ratings. Also, bookmark this post for later reference, if you're interested in "player profiling" (e.g. this dude is an above average inside scorer, below average mid-range threat, etc).

Please note that these ratings do not take into account assists, rebounding, turnovers, defense, or "the little things".

Top 25 Scorers (Starters)

You know when they say, "he can flat out score"? These are pretty much those guys, except more like the guys who can flat out score and do so relatively efficiently. Probably the biggest surprises at the top are Kevin Martin (on the strength of his free throw rating) and Stephen Curry (on the strength of mid-range and 3-pt shooting). The others are mostly the usual suspects. Brook Lopez and Andrea Bargnani also get more love here than from other metrics, and both do it mostly on the strength of their free throw rating, which is interesting. Free throws are kind of boring. Maybe if they were called "free dunks", these guys would get more credit?

RANK

NAME

TEAM

POS

TOT

INS

MID

3PT

FT

1

Dirk Nowitzki

DAL

PF

5.33

-0.72

3.11

0.43

2.51

2

LeBron James

MIA

SF

4.84

2.15

1.08

-0.46

2.06

3

Kevin Martin

HOU

SG

4.73

1.00

-1.15

0.73

4.14

4

Kevin Durant

OKC

SF

4.58

1.11

0.44

-0.20

3.22

5

Paul Pierce

BOS

SF

4.06

0.99

0.84

0.29

1.94

6

Dwight Howard

ORL

C

3.92

3.72

-0.86

-0.10

1.16

7

Dwyane Wade

MIA

SG

3.86

2.72

-0.16

-0.93

2.22

8

Nene Hilario

DEN

C

3.69

2.94

-0.59

-0.01

1.36

9

Stephen Curry

GSW

PG

3.49

0.02

1.17

1.96

0.33

10

Chauncey Billups

DEN

PG

3.30

-0.26

-0.67

2.06

2.16

11

Al Horford

ATL

C

3.24

0.91

2.12

0.07

0.14

12

Deron Williams

UTA

PG

3.16

0.44

0.84

-0.04

1.92

13

Kobe Bryant

LAL

SG

2.98

0.42

0.77

-0.82

2.61

14

Brook Lopez

NJN

C

2.87

0.33

0.44

0.01

2.10

15

Ray Allen

BOS

SG

2.82

-0.13

1.06

1.72

0.17

16

Amare Stoudemire

NYK

PF

2.75

0.77

0.01

-0.08

2.06

17

Steve Nash

PHX

PG

2.69

0.37

1.39

0.54

0.39

18

Derrick Rose

CHI

PG

2.49

1.08

-0.41

-0.28

2.09

19

Tony Parker

SAS

PG

2.48

2.05

0.59

-0.16

-0.00

20

Tyson Chandler

DAL

C

2.25

1.97

-0.66

0.03

0.92

21

Carmelo Anthony

DEN

SF

2.20

-0.18

-0.03

-0.40

2.81

22

Chris Paul

NOH

PG

2.18

-0.34

1.16

0.27

1.10

23

Eric Gordon

LAC

SG

2.17

1.05

-0.65

0.06

1.72

24

Pau Gasol

LAL

PF

2.10

0.55

0.51

-0.19

1.24

25

Andrea Bargnani

TOR

C

2.08

-0.45

0.55

0.21

1.77

Bottom 25 Scorers (Starters)

RANK

NAME

TEAM

POS

TOT

INS

MID

3PT

FT

161

Ben Wallace

DET

C

-4.76

-1.33

-1.79

-0.01

-1.63

160

Jason Kidd

DAL

PG

-3.80

-0.68

-1.52

-0.12

-1.47

159

Keith Bogans

CHI

SG

-3.72

-0.60

-1.97

0.44

-1.59

158

Ron Artest

LAL

SF

-3.55

-0.80

-1.59

-0.03

-1.14

157

Marcus Camby

POR

C

-3.39

-1.08

-1.50

-0.00

-0.80

156

Thabo Sefolosha

OKC

SG

-3.39

-0.09

-1.06

-1.07

-1.16

155

Trevor Ariza

NOH

SF

-3.35

0.01

-1.75

-0.90

-0.71

154

Andrew Bogut

MIL

C

-3.29

-0.03

-1.90

-0.04

-1.32

153

Luc Mbah a Moute

MIL

PF

-3.17

-1.09

-1.25

-0.37

-0.46

152

Andris Biedrins

GSW

C

-3.15

-0.10

-1.67

0.03

-1.42

151

Travis Outlaw

NJN

SF

-2.83

-1.16

-0.20

-0.94

-0.54

150

Darko Milicic

MIN

C

-2.80

-0.69

-1.28

0.03

-0.86

149

Shane Battier

HOU

SF

-2.74

-0.53

-1.52

0.69

-1.38

148

DeShawn Stevenson

DAL

SG

-2.73

-1.26

-1.24

0.90

-1.13

147

Carlos Delfino

MIL

SG

-2.70

-1.35

-0.86

0.44

-0.93

146

Eric Bledsoe

LAC

PG

-2.69

0.17

-1.13

-0.85

-0.88

145

Ryan Gomes

LAC

SF

-2.63

-1.01

-0.11

-0.28

-1.23

144

Kurt Thomas

CHI

PF

-2.62

-1.60

0.63

-0.19

-1.47

143

Mario Chalmers

MIA

PG

-2.55

-0.54

-1.09

0.32

-1.25

142

Omri Casspi

SAC

SF

-2.48

-0.26

-1.59

0.45

-1.08

141

Wesley Johnson

MIN

SG

-2.47

-0.57

-0.58

-0.13

-1.19

140

Derek Fisher

LAL

PG

-2.43

-0.80

-0.76

0.37

-1.23

139

Kenyon Martin

DEN

PF

-2.37

0.91

-1.64

-0.31

-1.32

138

Tyreke Evans

SAC

SG

-2.30

0.41

-2.05

-1.07

0.42

137

Boris Diaw

CHA

PF

-2.13

-0.07

-0.85

-0.04

-1.17

Top 10 Non-Starters

Reggie Williams in the top 10 of non-starters.

RANK

NAME

TEAM

POS

TOT

INS

MID

3PT

FT

1

Marcin Gortat

PHX

C

2.93

2.40

0.19

-0.00

0.34

2

Corey Maggette

MIL

SF

2.93

-0.02

-0.09

-0.18

3.21

3

Gary Neal

SAS

SG

1.67

-0.75

1.11

1.84

-0.54

4

George Hill

SAS

PG

1.28

-0.11

0.23

0.38

0.78

5

Louis Williams

PHI

PG

1.20

0.19

-0.96

0.05

1.92

6

Hakim Warrick

PHX

PF

1.10

1.47

-1.02

-0.48

1.13

7

Kyle Korver

CHI

SF

1.09

-1.37

1.07

2.00

-0.60

8

Jason Terry

DAL

SG

1.08

0.05

0.91

0.01

0.11

9

Thaddeus Young

PHI

PF

1.07

3.12

-1.25

-0.29

-0.51

10

Reggie Williams

GSW

SG

0.84

0.53

-0.78

1.47

-0.38

Bottom 10 Non-Starters

RANK

NAME

TEAM

POS

TOT

INS

MID

3PT

FT

67

Steve Blake

LAL

PG

-3.78

-0.98

-1.65

0.58

-1.72

66

Earl Watson

UTA

PG

-3.34

-0.35

-1.11

-0.38

-1.50

65

Al-Farouq Aminu

LAC

SF

-3.28

-0.67

-1.63

-0.69

-0.29

64

Corey Brewer

MIN

SG

-3.23

-0.27

-1.45

-1.37

-0.14

63

Donte Greene

SAC

SF

-3.15

0.47

-1.31

-1.22

-1.10

62

Vladimir Radmanovic

GSW

PF

-2.84

-1.09

-2.09

1.44

-1.10

61

Al Harrington

DEN

PF

-2.84

-0.95

-1.71

0.50

-0.67

60

Rudy Fernandez

POR

SG

-2.83

-0.34

-1.60

-0.99

0.11

59

Joel Anthony

MIA

C

-2.81

-0.94

-1.22

0.03

-0.68

58

Brendan Haywood

DAL

C

-2.77

1.15

-1.99

-0.01

-1.91

Here is the breakdown by position. I've lumped starters and non-starters together. Also, following the rating columns are the shot attempt rates per 100 poss (INSA, MIDA, 3PTA, FTA, AND1)  and shot %'s (INS%, etc).

Point Guards

PRK NAME TEAM TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
1 Stephen Curry GSW 3.49 0.02 1.17 1.96 0.33 3.9 61.5% 10.5 45.5% 6.9 66.2% 4.1 95.1% 0.445
2 Chauncey Billups DEN 3.30 -0.26 -0.67 2.06 2.16 2.6 61.9% 6.6 36.6% 7.4 65.9% 8.4 93.0% 0.431
3 Deron Williams UTA 3.16 0.44 0.84 -0.04 1.92 5.7 61.3% 8.5 43.8% 6.8 51.8% 8.6 85.5% 0.742
4 Steve Nash PHX 2.69 0.37 1.39 0.54 0.39 2.7 72.7% 9.7 46.7% 4.2 59.9% 4.8 92.8% 0.289
5 Derrick Rose CHI 2.49 1.08 -0.41 -0.28 2.09 9.3 60.4% 12.1 38.8% 6.7 50.0% 9.1 85.2% 0.766
6 Tony Parker SAS 2.48 2.05 0.59 -0.16 -0.00 9.4 65.4% 11.1 42.8% 1.4 54.3% 5.7 74.6% 0.554
7 Chris Paul NOH 2.18 -0.34 1.16 0.27 1.10 2.9 59.1% 11.1 45.3% 3.5 57.9% 6.7 87.7% 0.470
8 Beno Udrih SAC 1.84 0.69 1.31 -0.02 -0.15 3.3 73.3% 8.6 46.5% 3.4 53.9% 3.8 87.4% 0.409
9 Russell Westbrook OKC 1.52 1.08 -1.74 -0.30 2.49 9.9 59.7% 13.7 34.5% 1.9 49.5% 10.9 83.4% 0.683
10 Ramon Sessions CLE 1.52 0.48 -0.32 -0.42 1.79 8.5 57.7% 9.8 37.9% 0.4 30.0% 9.7 82.3% 0.506
11 George Hill SAS 1.28 -0.11 0.23 0.38 0.78 3.6 60.5% 6.9 42.6% 5.0 56.6% 6.0 85.8% 0.561
12 Rodney Stuckey DET 1.23 0.28 -0.65 -0.58 2.18 8.6 56.6% 9.9 36.3% 2.3 43.3% 8.5 85.6% 1.028
13 Louis Williams PHI 1.20 0.19 -0.96 0.05 1.92 4.6 61.4% 11.7 36.2% 7.6 52.2% 10.1 81.8% 0.541
14 Luke Ridnour MIN 1.01 -0.78 1.37 1.09 -0.66 2.6 51.8% 8.9 46.8% 4.3 66.0% 3.0 89.1% 0.185
15 Devin Harris NJN 0.74 -0.42 0.01 -0.62 1.77 6.7 53.2% 8.9 39.2% 3.4 45.0% 9.0 83.6% 0.625
16 Jameer Nelson ORL 0.68 0.02 0.13 1.17 -0.64 4.3 60.2% 8.1 39.8% 6.9 60.5% 3.5 82.8% 0.210
17 Ty Lawson DEN 0.68 0.99 -0.58 0.57 -0.31 7.2 62.7% 5.0 40.5% 4.0 60.5% 4.8 73.9% 0.520
18 Darren Collison IND 0.48 0.63 -0.09 -0.30 0.24 5.3 64.0% 10.5 39.5% 2.6 49.6% 4.4 88.8% 0.512
19 Shaun Livingston CHA 0.33 0.00 0.40 -0.32 0.26 4.6 59.4% 12.4 42.2% 0.2 37.5% 4.9 85.0% 0.518
20 Jose Barea DAL 0.30 0.71 -0.55 0.01 0.13 6.7 61.6% 8.0 35.7% 6.0 52.4% 4.3 83.1% 0.671
21 Andre Miller POR 0.26 0.79 -0.24 -0.80 0.52 5.3 65.7% 11.6 39.3% 0.8 16.2% 5.8 87.5% 0.272
22 Jerryd Bayless TOR 0.06 -0.15 -0.51 -0.00 0.72 6.4 55.6% 6.9 37.4% 5.2 52.7% 6.9 80.7% 0.512
23 Will Bynum DET -0.09 0.53 -0.62 -0.38 0.38 8.1 58.6% 9.0 35.6% 2.4 48.0% 5.2 85.5% 0.477
24 Raymond Felton NYK -0.11 -0.06 0.39 -0.30 -0.14 4.5 59.0% 8.2 41.2% 6.4 49.8% 4.1 88.8% 0.245
25 Jrue Holiday PHI -0.13 -0.10 0.36 0.12 -0.51 5.1 57.6% 9.1 41.2% 4.0 55.0% 3.3 80.6% 0.492
26 Jarrett Jack NOH -0.49 -0.06 -0.94 -0.16 0.67 3.2 62.5% 14.1 37.7% 3.4 51.8% 6.3 84.1% 0.444
27 D.J. Augustin CHA -0.53 -0.31 -0.62 -0.28 0.69 6.1 54.5% 6.1 37.7% 6.5 50.0% 5.3 91.2% 0.467
28 Mike Conley MEM -0.59 0.41 -0.36 0.14 -0.78 5.4 61.9% 8.2 36.6% 4.0 55.3% 4.4 73.5% 0.166
29 Mike Bibby ATL -0.74 -0.49 -0.90 2.41 -1.76 1.0 68.8% 5.0 37.3% 8.3 66.2% 1.4 61.9% 0.130
30 Jose Calderon TOR -0.99 -0.29 0.20 0.08 -0.99 3.1 59.4% 7.6 41.2% 3.8 54.8% 2.4 89.8% 0.097
31 Kyle Lowry HOU -1.06 0.33 -1.48 0.60 -0.51 4.3 64.0% 5.0 31.3% 6.8 56.4% 4.7 75.1% 0.279
32 Toney Douglas NYK -1.24 0.01 -0.96 0.88 -1.17 3.9 61.3% 5.7 35.5% 9.8 55.9% 2.6 78.4% 0.103
33 Brandon Jennings MIL -1.51 -0.54 -0.76 -0.50 0.29 6.4 52.5% 8.9 34.8% 7.5 48.5% 5.8 84.3% 0.246
34 John Wall WAS -1.57 0.49 -1.93 -0.56 0.44 7.1 59.4% 9.8 29.8% 2.3 43.8% 7.4 75.3% 0.467
35 Baron Davis LAC -1.65 -0.08 -0.04 -0.98 -0.56 6.7 55.8% 8.1 38.7% 6.2 44.4% 3.8 76.6% 0.409
36 Keyon Dooling MIL -1.78 -0.29 -0.56 -0.00 -0.93 2.2 63.4% 6.6 37.4% 7.2 51.9% 2.7 84.3% 0.154
37 Eric Maynor OKC -1.84 -0.78 -0.09 0.39 -1.35 1.8 52.5% 8.8 38.5% 4.3 57.8% 2.5 71.4% 0.135
38 Rajon Rondo BOS -2.12 0.61 -0.40 -0.55 -1.78 6.1 62.0% 7.0 37.9% 0.9 34.9% 2.7 55.1% 0.105
39 Jordan Farmar NJN -2.40 -0.32 -1.63 0.41 -0.86 4.9 55.5% 5.5 29.7% 9.1 53.8% 2.8 83.9% 0.211
40 Derek Fisher LAL -2.43 -0.80 -0.76 0.37 -1.23 1.7 52.1% 6.9 35.5% 3.7 58.9% 2.2 79.6% 0.163
41 Mario Chalmers MIA -2.55 -0.54 -1.09 0.32 -1.25 1.8 59.3% 3.5 38.8% 7.7 53.9% 2.0 86.9% 0.034
42 Eric Bledsoe LAC -2.69 0.17 -1.13 -0.85 -0.88 5.1 60.0% 5.3 34.4% 3.3 41.4% 3.4 73.1% 0.343
43 Earl Watson UTA -3.34 -0.35 -1.11 -0.38 -1.50 2.8 59.5% 4.1 36.8% 3.7 48.6% 2.7 67.9% 0.035
44 Steve Blake LAL -3.78 -0.98 -1.65 0.58 -1.72 0.6 41.2% 3.2 30.9% 6.6 56.5% 1.0 85.7% 0.000
45 Jason Kidd DAL -3.80 -0.68 -1.52 -0.12 -1.47 1.0 59.6% 3.0 33.3% 7.7 51.0% 1.5 86.7% 0.039

Shooting Guards

Monta Ellis comes in #12 here, which is about where I would expect.

PRK NAME TEAM TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
1 Kevin Martin HOU 4.73 1.00 -1.15 0.73 4.14 5.2 70.3% 10.6 34.7% 8.9 57.5% 12.2 89.1% 0.856
2 Dwyane Wade MIA 3.86 2.72 -0.16 -0.93 2.22 10.7 67.8% 11.3 39.7% 3.8 45.9% 11.0 73.4% 1.138
3 Kobe Bryant LAL 2.98 0.42 0.77 -0.82 2.61 5.4 64.1% 19.2 44.1% 6.8 48.4% 10.3 82.0% 0.831
4 Ray Allen BOS 2.82 -0.13 1.06 1.72 0.17 3.3 65.0% 7.8 46.5% 7.0 66.7% 3.8 91.7% 0.277
5 Eric Gordon LAC 2.17 1.05 -0.65 0.06 1.72 7.4 64.5% 8.8 35.6% 7.2 54.6% 7.8 82.3% 0.788
6 Manu Ginobili SAS 1.94 0.12 -0.09 -0.16 2.07 5.3 61.5% 6.9 40.7% 9.3 52.4% 7.9 87.7% 0.656
7 Gary Neal SAS 1.67 -0.75 1.11 1.84 -0.54 1.2 65.0% 8.8 45.6% 9.5 62.8% 2.8 77.5% 0.403
8 Anthony Morrow NJN 1.42 -1.21 1.41 1.47 -0.26 1.7 47.4% 8.8 47.3% 7.6 63.7% 2.9 92.9% 0.205
9 Nick Young WAS 1.34 -0.45 0.67 0.59 0.52 2.6 62.7% 14.0 43.6% 6.8 58.9% 5.3 83.3% 0.383
10 Wes Matthews POR 1.18 0.15 -1.00 1.25 0.78 5.7 63.7% 6.1 32.4% 7.4 61.1% 5.8 85.5% 0.335
11 Jason Terry DAL 1.08 0.05 0.91 0.01 0.11 2.7 71.4% 12.4 44.5% 7.2 54.3% 4.1 86.5% 0.286
12 Monta Ellis GSW 0.91 1.49 -1.08 -0.14 0.63 6.7 69.3% 12.7 36.6% 6.0 54.0% 6.4 78.4% 0.441
13 Reggie Williams GSW 0.84 0.53 -0.78 1.47 -0.38 4.4 68.8% 6.1 36.6% 7.6 63.8% 3.8 72.5% 0.442
14 Ben Gordon DET 0.63 -0.73 0.60 0.78 -0.01 3.0 56.3% 9.7 42.9% 6.7 60.3% 3.8 87.3% 0.252
15 Jamal Crawford ATL 0.57 -0.37 0.49 -0.42 0.87 3.0 62.3% 9.2 42.2% 8.1 51.1% 5.7 87.7% 0.371
16 Arron Afflalo DEN 0.55 0.07 -0.10 0.86 -0.28 3.4 67.3% 4.9 45.7% 5.4 63.5% 3.3 84.8% 0.263
17 DeMar DeRozan TOR 0.49 0.04 0.74 -1.31 1.02 6.6 60.7% 13.5 42.5% 0.9 14.4% 6.6 79.4% 0.674
18 J.R. Smith DEN 0.44 -0.48 0.22 0.74 -0.04 4.3 56.2% 7.6 40.8% 8.1 58.5% 5.2 73.3% 0.381
19 Marco Belinelli NOH 0.44 -0.78 0.17 1.56 -0.51 2.9 55.8% 7.2 41.8% 8.9 62.2% 3.2 80.5% 0.192
20 Kirk Hinrich WAS 0.34 -0.33 0.61 -0.00 0.07 2.1 68.3% 9.5 42.9% 4.0 57.6% 3.3 90.3% 0.427
21 J.J. Redick ORL 0.32 -0.52 -0.30 0.83 0.30 2.2 63.5% 5.6 41.8% 7.6 59.4% 4.2 91.5% 0.246
22 Richard Hamilton DET 0.30 -0.02 -0.54 0.16 0.71 2.3 73.4% 16.8 40.2% 5.2 57.3% 6.0 84.9% 0.218
23 James Harden OKC 0.07 0.02 -1.26 -0.22 1.52 5.1 61.1% 3.5 36.1% 7.8 52.5% 7.8 83.7% 0.465
24 Tony Allen MEM -0.01 2.16 -1.39 -1.00 0.21 10.2 66.0% 6.4 31.5% 0.8 26.1% 6.0 73.5% 0.423
25 Joe Johnson ATL -0.16 0.44 0.47 -1.31 0.24 5.1 65.3% 13.3 42.8% 6.4 44.5% 4.8 81.9% 0.361
26 Leandro Barbosa TOR -0.46 1.35 -1.26 -0.57 0.02 9.7 62.6% 6.5 32.4% 7.8 50.2% 4.5 77.2% 0.443
27 Stephen Jackson CHA -0.55 -0.36 -0.44 -0.52 0.77 6.7 55.5% 8.9 36.9% 8.0 50.6% 6.4 81.3% 0.379
28 Jodie Meeks PHI -0.57 -0.63 -1.29 1.08 0.27 2.5 59.6% 3.1 36.6% 8.8 59.6% 4.1 92.0% 0.204
29 Courtney Lee HOU -0.67 -0.05 -0.70 0.57 -0.49 4.5 61.7% 7.7 35.3% 5.3 61.2% 3.4 78.8% 0.212
30 Willie Green NOH -0.67 -0.30 0.65 -0.38 -0.64 2.8 64.7% 12.1 43.4% 5.0 52.3% 3.0 75.8% 0.293
31 Daniel Gibson CLE -0.69 -1.61 -0.22 1.09 0.06 2.9 41.5% 7.3 39.1% 8.1 60.4% 4.3 83.1% 0.306
32 Shannon Brown LAL -0.71 0.60 -1.01 -0.20 -0.11 5.5 65.6% 8.9 33.7% 7.2 52.9% 3.0 91.0% 0.341
33 Vince Carter PHX -0.71 0.42 -0.81 0.28 -0.61 5.2 64.7% 9.0 35.0% 9.0 54.9% 3.2 69.8% 0.446
34 C.J. Miles UTA -0.79 0.33 -0.83 -0.68 0.39 5.5 66.0% 9.6 34.5% 9.1 48.5% 4.8 81.7% 0.520
35 Sasha Vujacic NJN -0.82 -1.09 0.46 0.30 -0.50 1.3 51.3% 9.4 42.1% 8.6 55.3% 3.1 85.7% 0.101
36 Gerald Henderson CHA -0.94 0.04 0.09 -1.10 0.03 5.7 60.1% 11.8 41.0% 1.2 29.2% 5.0 77.3% 0.295
37 Randy Foye LAC -1.18 -0.61 -0.40 -0.74 0.57 2.8 59.0% 7.8 37.2% 7.3 49.1% 4.8 91.5% 0.235
38 Landry Fields NYK -1.28 0.90 -1.57 0.19 -0.81 4.5 72.1% 3.1 32.3% 4.4 59.2% 2.7 75.2% 0.201
39 O.J. Mayo MEM -1.36 -0.44 -0.50 0.12 -0.54 3.5 59.7% 10.0 37.4% 7.3 55.0% 3.5 78.6% 0.140
40 Jason Richardson ORL -1.39 0.11 -1.10 0.75 -1.15 4.2 64.6% 5.3 34.9% 9.3 57.3% 2.3 71.3% 0.085
41 Tracy McGrady DET -1.42 0.27 -0.43 -0.54 -0.72 4.5 65.4% 9.6 37.5% 2.9 51.1% 4.0 68.0% 0.230
42 Brandon Rush IND -1.52 -0.35 -1.33 1.03 -0.86 2.8 63.8% 5.8 32.3% 6.5 62.6% 3.0 75.2% 0.088
43 Sonny Weems TOR -1.65 -0.03 0.02 -0.97 -0.68 4.8 61.4% 11.5 40.6% 2.2 41.8% 3.2 76.7% 0.144
44 Paul George IND -1.66 0.57 -0.52 -1.21 -0.50 5.2 66.2% 5.1 40.9% 5.5 44.6% 3.6 73.6% 0.319
45 Brandon Roy POR -1.68 -0.26 -1.35 -0.61 0.54 4.5 59.4% 12.8 35.6% 4.8 50.0% 5.5 84.0% 0.295
46 Evan Turner PHI -1.83 -0.10 -0.65 -0.73 -0.35 3.2 65.7% 11.1 37.4% 1.3 45.3% 3.4 79.8% 0.326
47 Raja Bell UTA -1.92 -0.56 -0.50 -0.23 -0.63 1.0 77.5% 5.9 39.4% 4.8 54.0% 2.6 91.1% 0.025
48 Anthony Parker CLE -1.99 -0.82 -0.39 0.16 -0.95 0.9 66.7% 7.2 38.1% 5.6 56.8% 2.1 76.2% 0.224
49 Wayne Ellington MIN -2.01 -1.16 -0.26 0.36 -0.96 2.7 49.2% 8.9 37.9% 5.1 59.5% 2.0 77.1% 0.211
50 Ronnie Brewer CHI -2.14 0.67 -1.02 -0.85 -0.94 5.8 65.3% 6.3 34.5% 0.8 34.6% 3.7 63.9% 0.214
51 Tyreke Evans SAC -2.30 0.41 -2.05 -1.07 0.42 8.8 58.5% 10.4 30.3% 3.6 43.6% 6.0 74.9% 0.564
52 Wesley Johnson MIN -2.47 -0.57 -0.58 -0.13 -1.19 2.1 62.9% 7.3 36.6% 6.9 53.5% 2.1 68.6% 0.143
53 Carlos Delfino MIL -2.70 -1.35 -0.86 0.44 -0.93 3.1 46.2% 4.7 38.4% 9.6 55.5% 2.5 79.7% 0.034
54 DeShawn Stevenson DAL -2.73 -1.26 -1.24 0.90 -1.13 1.3 44.8% 2.4 40.4% 11.4 56.6% 1.8 75.0% 0.137
55 Rudy Fernandez POR -2.83 -0.34 -1.60 -0.99 0.11 2.7 64.1% 3.6 31.1% 10.7 48.2% 4.0 86.8% 0.297
56 Corey Brewer MIN -3.23 -0.27 -1.45 -1.37 -0.14 5.0 58.3% 7.2 30.7% 3.6 39.4% 5.8 68.8% 0.399
57 Thabo Sefolosha OKC -3.39 -0.09 -1.06 -1.07 -1.16 3.4 65.2% 2.4 43.8% 2.6 41.2% 1.9 73.0% 0.127
58 Keith Bogans CHI -3.72 -0.60 -1.97 0.44 -1.59 1.6 66.7% 1.0 21.4% 8.5 56.2% 1.1 63.3% 0.000

Small Forwards

PRK NAME TEAM TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
1 LeBron James MIA 4.84 2.15 1.08 -0.46 2.06 8.7 70.6% 12.1 44.3% 4.8 49.5% 10.4 74.9% 0.981
2 Kevin Durant OKC 4.58 1.11 0.44 -0.20 3.22 4.4 78.9% 14.7 42.0% 7.0 51.5% 10.8 88.0% 0.618
3 Paul Pierce BOS 4.06 0.99 0.84 0.29 1.94 5.9 70.6% 8.0 43.1% 5.7 56.1% 7.8 85.0% 0.786
4 Corey Maggette MIL 2.93 -0.02 -0.09 -0.18 3.21 6.0 61.8% 12.3 39.5% 3.0 53.8% 11.5 83.4% 0.873
5 Carmelo Anthony DEN 2.20 -0.18 -0.03 -0.40 2.81 10.4 55.9% 13.5 40.1% 3.6 50.0% 11.0 81.3% 0.880
6 Danny Granger IND 1.50 -0.06 -0.95 0.77 1.74 5.8 61.6% 9.8 34.1% 7.5 57.9% 8.1 85.3% 0.459
7 Grant Hill PHX 1.23 0.47 0.36 0.04 0.36 4.4 71.7% 10.8 41.0% 2.4 59.2% 5.0 81.4% 0.426
8 Rudy Gay MEM 1.23 0.44 0.10 0.26 0.43 5.3 67.4% 12.4 40.3% 3.5 59.4% 5.5 79.8% 0.441
9 Kyle Korver CHI 1.09 -1.37 1.07 2.00 -0.60 0.6 55.6% 8.1 44.5% 9.3 62.9% 2.5 92.1% 0.066
10 Shawn Marion DAL 0.70 1.98 0.04 -0.80 -0.52 9.5 67.7% 9.3 38.9% 0.8 23.4% 3.6 76.1% 0.211
11 Luol Deng CHI 0.52 0.59 0.10 -0.17 -0.00 5.9 67.1% 7.8 38.3% 5.5 52.1% 5.2 74.4% 0.371
12 Jared Dudley PHX 0.49 -0.06 -0.37 1.11 -0.18 4.0 67.1% 5.1 39.8% 6.2 62.3% 4.9 72.4% 0.366
13 Wilson Chandler NYK 0.40 1.18 -0.20 -0.05 -0.52 4.9 76.3% 8.3 36.8% 7.0 52.5% 3.0 79.6% 0.292
14 Michael Beasley MIN 0.18 0.50 -0.55 -0.07 0.29 5.7 66.8% 17.1 39.4% 3.5 54.9% 5.4 72.4% 0.718
15 Marvin Williams ATL 0.16 0.00 0.20 -0.38 0.34 4.7 65.0% 7.7 38.9% 3.2 50.5% 4.7 85.3% 0.320
16 Mike Dunleavy IND 0.05 -0.30 -0.29 1.14 -0.50 3.0 68.6% 4.9 41.5% 7.6 60.2% 3.6 79.2% 0.149
17 Martell Webster MIN -0.00 -0.83 -0.31 1.12 0.02 3.9 57.6% 5.7 39.0% 6.1 62.5% 5.3 75.9% 0.277
18 Danilo Gallinari NYK -0.19 -0.56 -1.81 0.12 2.07 3.6 70.1% 4.6 29.5% 7.4 52.1% 8.4 89.4% 0.308
19 Richard Jefferson SAS -0.20 -0.35 -1.00 1.64 -0.49 3.3 66.7% 3.9 36.4% 6.5 65.7% 3.9 74.5% 0.234
20 Andrei Kirilenko UTA -0.34 0.22 -1.02 -0.16 0.62 6.4 62.9% 5.4 33.2% 2.6 54.7% 6.7 76.0% 0.484
21 Gordon Hayward UTA -0.38 -0.32 -0.43 1.01 -0.64 3.9 64.0% 5.6 38.1% 3.2 71.9% 3.9 69.7% 0.266
22 Tayshaun Prince DET -0.45 1.12 -0.45 -0.32 -0.79 6.2 70.5% 13.4 38.5% 2.1 52.0% 3.3 68.6% 0.282
23 Hedo Turkoglu ORL -0.49 -1.23 0.89 0.88 -1.03 2.0 54.9% 6.8 45.6% 5.9 60.9% 3.1 65.4% 0.200
24 Andre Iguodala PHI -0.58 0.64 -0.62 -0.36 -0.23 4.4 73.8% 8.1 34.0% 3.9 50.6% 6.2 67.9% 0.280
25 Francisco Garcia SAC -0.58 0.24 -0.46 0.21 -0.58 3.0 78.0% 6.2 36.7% 8.1 53.8% 2.6 85.7% 0.219
26 Nicolas Batum POR -0.65 0.48 -0.65 -0.15 -0.34 5.2 68.3% 4.8 37.9% 7.4 51.8% 3.2 82.7% 0.302
27 Sam Young MEM -0.66 0.55 -0.33 -0.37 -0.51 6.1 66.1% 8.7 36.4% 1.7 51.0% 3.4 73.8% 0.367
28 John Salmons MIL -0.92 -1.01 -0.23 0.23 0.09 3.7 55.7% 10.6 38.2% 4.6 56.8% 4.8 80.5% 0.295
29 Chase Budinger HOU -1.00 0.31 -0.65 -0.61 -0.05 5.1 66.9% 6.1 35.3% 8.0 48.7% 3.7 84.0% 0.382
30 James Jones MIA -1.14 -1.44 -1.37 2.41 -0.74 0.1 50.0% 2.0 38.6% 9.8 64.3% 2.4 87.0% 0.103
31 Gerald Wallace CHA -1.17 -0.47 -0.84 -0.43 0.57 7.2 56.6% 6.5 33.2% 3.0 49.5% 7.7 72.6% 0.402
32 Dorell Wright GSW -1.18 -0.05 -1.29 0.65 -0.50 4.5 65.5% 5.8 30.3% 8.3 56.4% 3.4 78.6% 0.208
33 Austin Daye DET -1.21 -1.43 -0.14 0.89 -0.53 3.8 50.0% 7.3 37.1% 6.4 60.2% 3.8 74.5% 0.222
34 Omri Casspi SAC -2.48 -0.26 -1.59 0.45 -1.08 3.7 65.9% 5.0 28.1% 7.2 55.9% 2.7 66.7% 0.176
35 Ryan Gomes LAC -2.63 -1.01 -0.11 -0.28 -1.23 1.7 62.3% 5.6 40.9% 5.3 51.2% 2.0 70.7% 0.075
36 Shane Battier HOU -2.74 -0.53 -1.52 0.69 -1.38 3.3 63.6% 1.8 35.4% 6.3 58.7% 2.0 63.0% 0.084
37 Travis Outlaw NJN -2.83 -1.16 -0.20 -0.94 -0.54 2.4 55.8% 8.5 37.0% 5.8 45.4% 3.6 75.2% 0.231
38 Donte Greene SAC -3.15 0.47 -1.31 -1.22 -1.10 4.6 70.6% 5.9 30.0% 6.9 44.1% 2.7 62.7% 0.271
39 Al-Farouq Aminu LAC -3.28 -0.67 -1.63 -0.69 -0.29 5.0 57.4% 4.3 28.1% 5.1 47.2% 3.9 75.9% 0.392
40 Trevor Ariza NOH -3.35 0.01 -1.75 -0.90 -0.71 5.0 64.3% 5.2 26.4% 5.6 45.6% 3.8 67.6% 0.312
41 Ron Artest LAL -3.55 -0.80 -1.59 -0.03 -1.14 4.5 57.0% 5.0 28.1% 5.1 53.7% 2.9 65.9% 0.111

Power Forwards

PRK NAME TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
1 Dirk Nowitzki 5.33 -0.72 3.11 0.43 2.51 3.5 68.2% 17.5 50.9% 3.5 58.9% 8.6 90.0% 0.626
2 Amare Stoudemire 2.75 0.77 0.01 -0.08 2.06 9.3 64.8% 16.3 41.9% 0.4 62.5% 9.5 77.3% 0.997
3 Pau Gasol 2.10 0.55 0.51 -0.19 1.24 9.3 63.6% 10.3 42.6% 0.1 50.0% 6.8 80.7% 0.741
4 Paul Millsap 2.03 0.85 0.77 -0.13 0.55 7.5 69.0% 12.1 44.0% 0.5 56.3% 6.0 72.5% 0.798
5 David West 1.89 -0.06 1.23 -0.26 0.98 6.2 65.7% 16.8 45.6% 0.2 33.3% 6.7 79.3% 0.624
6 Kevin Garnett 1.73 0.55 1.03 -0.24 0.39 5.6 73.0% 14.0 45.0% 0.1 30.0% 4.9 85.4% 0.287
7 Chris Bosh 1.69 -0.03 0.46 -0.32 1.59 6.2 66.0% 13.3 42.9% 0.5 36.0% 8.2 80.0% 0.662
8 Kevin Love 1.36 -0.16 -1.43 0.82 2.13 9.0 60.2% 6.6 32.2% 4.0 62.6% 8.9 84.4% 0.610
9 Zach Randolph 1.22 0.91 0.04 -0.56 0.84 10.4 64.0% 12.0 40.9% 0.8 27.9% 7.0 73.7% 0.764
10 LaMarcus Aldridge 1.15 0.88 -0.31 -0.38 0.96 10.9 63.1% 13.0 39.9% 0.4 26.1% 6.9 77.0% 0.668
11 Blake Griffin 1.14 2.05 -1.57 -0.24 0.90 12.5 66.1% 10.2 32.4% 0.4 43.8% 10.5 62.3% 1.106
12 Hakim Warrick 1.10 1.47 -1.02 -0.48 1.13 7.2 74.1% 8.7 33.8% 0.4 13.6% 10.2 70.7% 0.512
13 Thaddeus Young 1.07 3.12 -1.25 -0.29 -0.51 11.5 72.1% 9.1 32.7% 0.5 40.9% 3.8 66.9% 0.500
14 Brandon Bass 1.01 -0.12 0.81 -0.25 0.57 5.8 66.3% 11.9 44.2% 0.1 0.0% 6.0 80.0% 0.388
15 Carlos Boozer 0.71 1.55 -0.78 -0.19 0.13 11.2 65.7% 12.5 37.8% 0.0 0.0% 6.2 67.6% 0.650
16 Elton Brand 0.68 -0.84 1.74 -0.21 -0.01 4.2 64.0% 14.3 47.5% 0.0 0.0% 4.8 76.4% 0.359
17 Lamar Odom 0.49 1.22 -0.55 0.28 -0.46 8.2 69.7% 6.4 39.2% 3.6 56.6% 4.4 62.6% 0.635
18 Luis Scola 0.36 0.01 0.63 -0.25 -0.03 10.1 59.9% 13.6 43.6% 0.1 0.0% 5.8 72.6% 0.273
19 Carl Landry 0.27 1.05 -1.09 -0.30 0.61 6.3 74.3% 11.4 35.8% 0.1 0.0% 7.0 68.6% 0.883
20 David Lee 0.22 0.31 -0.02 -0.19 0.13 8.57 63.5% 10.15 40.0% 0.06 50.0% 4.54 75.8% 0.596
21 Serge Ibaka 0.15 0.94 -0.18 -0.19 -0.41 6.9 71.2% 7.6 40.0% 0.0 0.0% 4.2 74.0% 0.241
22 Josh Smith -0.05 0.58 -0.52 -0.21 0.10 8.5 65.1% 9.6 37.1% 3.1 49.7% 6.0 71.2% 0.429
23 Darrell Arthur -0.08 0.32 0.09 -0.39 -0.11 6.6 67.7% 13.6 41.6% 0.2 0.0% 3.9 80.7% 0.359
24 Amir Johnson -0.09 1.78 -1.70 -0.24 0.06 9.5 69.9% 4.0 31.0% 0.0 0.0% 3.8 78.3% 0.644
25 Tyler Hansbrough -0.10 -0.61 -0.33 -0.26 1.10 6.3 61.1% 13.9 40.1% 0.1 0.0% 7.8 76.6% 0.596
26 Charlie Villanueva -0.74 -1.13 -0.49 1.45 -0.57 6.4 56.8% 6.0 40.3% 10.3 57.9% 3.5 75.5% 0.193
27 Jason Thompson -0.93 0.63 -0.42 -0.28 -0.86 6.5 70.1% 9.0 37.1% 0.1 0.0% 5.5 58.4% 0.292
28 Kris Humphries -1.02 0.86 -1.04 -0.22 -0.63 8.7 66.4% 6.7 35.1% 0.0 0.0% 4.7 64.0% 0.346
29 Matt Bonner -1.05 -1.62 -0.98 2.84 -1.28 1.5 63.4% 3.6 41.0% 8.4 68.1% 1.5 72.5% 0.109
30 Antawn Jamison -1.07 -0.25 -0.98 0.03 0.13 6.0 64.7% 11.0 36.0% 7.3 51.5% 6.0 71.2% 0.472
31 Channing Frye -1.19 -1.36 -0.27 1.32 -0.88 1.9 67.4% 6.1 41.9% 9.0 58.4% 2.0 81.4% 0.204
32 Josh McRoberts -1.29 0.50 -1.35 0.09 -0.53 6.9 68.2% 3.5 36.4% 1.9 57.5% 3.4 73.1% 0.348
33 Ryan Anderson -1.31 -0.89 -2.29 2.01 -0.15 5.0 61.2% 1.8 17.0% 12.5 58.8% 4.0 80.4% 0.298
34 Ersan Ilyasova -1.46 -1.30 0.57 -0.65 -0.08 5.0 57.1% 8.7 42.9% 4.3 44.6% 3.5 89.8% 0.212
35 Anthony Tolliver -1.50 -1.09 -1.24 0.77 0.06 2.8 66.7% 4.6 35.8% 4.3 61.3% 4.3 78.4% 0.482
36 Antonio McDyess -1.61 -0.51 0.25 -0.23 -1.11 3.3 72.4% 9.8 41.2% 0.0 0.0% 2.8 67.6% 0.077
37 Andray Blatche -1.65 0.81 -2.67 -0.33 0.55 8.5 66.5% 13.7 31.5% 0.4 33.3% 6.2 75.7% 0.571
38 Ed Davis -1.66 0.29 -0.49 -0.19 -1.27 7.9 64.5% 4.3 45.0% 0.0 0.0% 3.8 51.7% 0.326
39 J.J. Hickson -1.69 0.32 -1.85 -0.31 0.14 10.2 61.3% 11.0 32.0% 0.1 0.0% 7.9 65.2% 0.503
40 Jeff Green -1.74 0.08 -1.46 -0.66 0.29 6.3 66.7% 6.3 32.1% 5.3 45.7% 4.7 79.8% 0.521
41 Glen Davis -1.84 -0.53 -0.94 -0.40 0.04 6.2 61.9% 12.5 37.2% 0.4 20.0% 5.9 72.1% 0.332
42 Jordan Hill -1.85 -0.05 -0.94 -0.28 -0.57 8.9 60.8% 7.2 35.3% 0.1 0.0% 3.3 65.3% 0.600
43 DeJuan Blair -2.08 0.38 -1.38 -0.25 -0.83 10.9 60.9% 6.5 32.6% 0.1 0.0% 3.7 62.1% 0.389
44 Boris Diaw -2.13 -0.07 -0.85 -0.04 -1.17 6.3 65.4% 4.3 40.6% 4.4 51.8% 2.2 65.5% 0.193
45 Taj Gibson -2.17 -0.17 -0.91 -0.35 -0.75 6.9 63.3% 8.5 34.4% 0.3 18.8% 4.5 66.7% 0.158
46 Kenyon Martin -2.37 0.91 -1.64 -0.31 -1.32 8.3 67.5% 6.1 30.7% 0.4 33.3% 2.7 54.5% 0.246
47 Kurt Thomas -2.62 -1.60 0.63 -0.19 -1.47 1.8 61.5% 6.6 47.9% 0.0 0.0% 1.3 59.3% 0.141
48 Al Harrington -2.84 -0.95 -1.71 0.50 -0.67 6.2 58.5% 4.2 30.7% 9.8 53.5% 3.2 70.5% 0.360
49 Vladimir Radmanovic -2.84 -1.09 -2.09 1.44 -1.10 3.57 63.0% 2.82 25.0% 7.62 60.7% 1.41 87.5% 0.088
50 Luc Mbah a Moute -3.17 -1.09 -1.25 -0.37 -0.46 5.8 57.8% 5.2 34.8% 0.2 0.0% 4.6 69.5% 0.287

Centers

PRK NAME TEAM TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
1 Dwight Howard ORL 3.92 3.72 -0.86 -0.10 1.16 14.4 67.6% 4.2 34.5% 0.1 0.0% 15.6 57.4% 0.878
2 Nene Hilario DEN 3.69 2.94 -0.59 -0.01 1.36 10.5 70.4% 3.9 38.6% 0.1 30.0% 7.9 67.2% 1.068
3 Al Horford ATL 3.24 0.91 2.12 0.07 0.14 6.4 67.7% 11.9 49.2% 0.1 75.0% 3.4 78.0% 0.380
4 Marcin Gortat PHX 2.93 2.40 0.19 -0.00 0.34 8.8 71.4% 7.8 39.8% 0.1 37.5% 5.3 71.3% 0.353
5 Brook Lopez NJN 2.87 0.33 0.44 0.01 2.10 11.2 57.5% 13.4 42.4% 0.0 0.0% 8.1 76.3% 1.034
6 Tyson Chandler DAL 2.25 1.97 -0.66 0.03 0.92 8.1 70.7% 2.3 46.7% 0.0 0.0% 7.0 71.2% 0.534
7 Andrea Bargnani TOR 2.08 -0.45 0.55 0.21 1.77 5.8 57.9% 14.9 42.9% 4.9 51.8% 6.8 79.8% 0.830
8 Marc Gasol MEM 1.77 0.72 0.28 0.07 0.70 7.1 64.6% 7.1 40.0% 0.1 64.3% 5.4 71.9% 0.639
9 Al Jefferson UTA 1.74 0.99 0.09 0.03 0.62 8.9 63.2% 15.0 41.4% 0.0 0.0% 4.5 71.8% 0.802
10 Tim Duncan SAS 1.45 1.20 -0.03 -0.06 0.34 6.9 68.6% 13.1 40.6% 0.1 0.0% 5.9 70.3% 0.263
11 Andrew Bynum LAL 1.27 1.93 -0.84 0.03 0.15 10.7 65.3% 4.0 35.1% 0.0 0.0% 6.9 63.2% 0.328
12 Ryan Hollins CLE 0.73 1.57 -1.28 0.03 0.41 6.9 71.2% 2.8 31.7% 0.0 0.0% 6.7 65.3% 0.488
13 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 0.34 0.20 0.70 -0.01 -0.54 5.3 64.9% 9.4 43.1% 0.0 0.0% 2.0 76.7% 0.139
14 JaVale McGee WAS 0.32 2.17 -1.33 -0.04 -0.47 9.7 68.2% 4.6 28.6% 0.1 0.0% 5.1 55.3% 0.394
15 Joakim Noah CHI 0.17 0.81 -1.27 -0.00 0.64 9.9 61.0% 3.7 30.3% 0.0 0.0% 5.9 71.8% 0.472
16 Emeka Okafor NOH 0.15 1.56 -0.98 0.01 -0.44 9.0 66.2% 3.5 34.7% 0.0 0.0% 5.6 52.3% 0.550
17 Roy Hibbert IND -0.40 0.96 -2.00 -0.06 0.70 12.4 59.3% 7.6 25.2% 0.1 0.0% 5.6 71.8% 0.609
18 Samuel Dalembert SAC -0.51 -0.51 0.15 -0.02 -0.14 7.4 55.8% 7.7 39.4% 0.1 0.0% 3.6 70.1% 0.320
19 Ronny Turiaf NYK -0.53 1.21 -1.32 0.03 -0.45 5.3 74.6% 2.0 33.3% 0.0 0.0% 4.0 58.9% 0.357
20 DeAndre Jordan LAC -0.60 2.22 -1.54 0.01 -1.29 7.8 73.0% 0.9 31.4% 0.0 0.0% 5.3 43.8% 0.179
21 Greg Monroe DET -0.63 1.40 -1.74 0.01 -0.29 10.8 62.7% 2.5 23.3% 0.0 0.0% 5.3 59.5% 0.343
22 Nick Collison OKC -0.83 0.74 -1.14 0.03 -0.46 5.6 68.8% 2.8 34.2% 0.0 0.0% 2.1 70.7% 0.321
23 Kwame Brown CHA -0.91 0.34 -1.18 0.03 -0.10 8.5 60.0% 3.4 32.1% 0.0 0.0% 6.7 54.3% 0.706
24 Zaza Pachulia ATL -0.91 -0.63 -1.42 0.03 1.10 6.6 55.6% 3.5 28.4% 0.0 0.0% 7.4 74.1% 0.392
25 DeMarcus Cousins SAC -0.97 0.36 -2.11 -0.17 0.94 8.9 59.7% 12.9 32.4% 0.4 25.0% 8.2 66.0% 0.684
26 Spencer Hawes PHI -1.34 0.17 -0.30 -0.28 -0.94 7.8 59.8% 8.5 37.2% 1.1 36.5% 2.5 51.9% 0.215
27 Chuck Hayes HOU -1.39 0.07 -0.93 -0.02 -0.51 8.6 58.3% 2.9 37.3% 0.0 0.0% 3.3 64.2% 0.200
28 Brendan Haywood DAL -2.77 1.15 -1.99 -0.01 -1.91 7.2 67.4% 1.6 14.6% 0.0 0.0% 6.7 33.1% 0.319
29 Darko Milicic MIN -2.80 -0.69 -1.28 0.03 -0.86 12.8 52.5% 4.2 29.6% 0.0 0.0% 3.1 52.8% 0.237
30 Joel Anthony MIA -2.81 -0.94 -1.22 0.03 -0.68 2.4 59.1% 1.2 42.4% 0.0 0.0% 2.6 65.7% 0.111
31 Andris Biedrins GSW -3.15 -0.10 -1.67 0.03 -1.42 8.4 57.5% 1.2 24.2% 0.0 0.0% 1.1 30.0% 0.036
32 Andrew Bogut MIL -3.29 -0.03 -1.90 -0.04 -1.32 15.2 54.3% 2.3 19.6% 0.1 0.0% 4.9 41.5% 0.237
33 Marcus Camby POR -3.39 -1.08 -1.50 -0.00 -0.80 5.5 52.7% 5.2 26.6% 0.0 0.0% 2.3 57.8% 0.219
34 Ben Wallace DET -4.76 -1.33 -1.79 -0.01 -1.63 5.5 50.4% 1.2 19.2% 0.0 0.0% 2.6 33.3% 0.000

Finally, the ratings for our 2010-11 Golden State Warriors:

Warriors

RANK NAME POS POSS TOT INS MID 3PT FT INSA INS% MIDA MID% 3PTA eFG% FTA FT% AND1
9 Stephen Curry PG 4948 3.49 0.02 1.17 1.96 0.33 3.88 61.5% 10.49 45.5% 6.91 66.2% 4.14 95.1% 0.445
Brandan Wright PF 389 1.98 2.38 1.33 -0.19 -1.54 9.00 74.3% 5.14 60.0% 0.00 0.0% 3.34 46.2% 0.257
51 Monta Ellis SG 6343 0.91 1.49 -1.08 -0.14 0.63 6.68 69.3% 12.69 36.6% 5.96 54.0% 6.35 78.4% 0.441
Al Thornton SF 606 0.88 1.88 -1.01 -0.57 0.58 4.95 83.3% 12.05 35.6% 0.17 0.0% 5.12 80.6% 0.660

Reggie Williams SG 3171 0.84 0.53 -0.78 1.47 -0.38 4.35 68.8% 6.12 36.6% 7.57 63.8% 3.78 72.5% 0.442
72 David Lee PF 5202 0.22 0.31 -0.02 -0.19 0.13 8.57 63.5% 10.15 40.0% 0.06 50.0% 4.54 75.8% 0.596
Rodney Carney SF 663 -0.74 -0.98 -0.77 1.71 -0.70 3.17 57.1% 7.39 32.7% 5.58 68.9% 3.77 68.0% 0.302
115 Dorell Wright SF 6237 -1.18 -0.05 -1.29 0.65 -0.50 4.46 65.5% 5.77 30.3% 8.27 56.4% 3.45 78.6% 0.208
Acie Law PG 1218 -1.72 0.78 -0.61 -1.27 -0.64 6.08 63.5% 5.17 39.7% 2.46 30.0% 4.02 73.5% 0.411
Ekpe Udoh C 1995 -2.36 -1.17 -0.62 0.03 -0.61 5.81 51.7% 5.31 34.9% 0.00 0.0% 3.06 63.9% 0.150

Vladimir Radmanovic PF 2269 -2.84 -1.09 -2.09 1.44 -1.10 3.57 63.0% 2.82 25.0% 7.62 60.7% 1.41 87.5% 0.088
152 Andris Biedrins C 2772 -3.15 -0.10 -1.67 0.03 -1.42 8.41 57.5% 1.19 24.2% 0.00 0.0% 1.08 30.0% 0.036
Jeremy Lin PG 541 -3.28 -0.12 -2.09 -0.65 -0.41 5.91 56.3% 6.47 25.7% 0.92 30.0% 4.25 78.3% 0.370
Dan Gadzuric C 574 -4.28 -2.23 -0.36 -0.14 -1.55 9.23 45.3% 5.75 36.4% 0.17 0.0% 2.44 35.7% 0.000
Louis Amundson PF 1353 -4.41 -0.84 -1.48 0.03 -2.13 9.39 52.8% 4.07 27.3% 0.00 0.0% 5.91 35.0% 0.370
Jeff Adrien PF 378 -5.47 -1.19 -3.10 -0.19 -0.98 10.32 53.8% 3.97 13.3% 0.00 0.0% 4.50 52.9% 0.529
Charlie Bell SG 321 -6.75 -1.43 -2.03 -1.54 -1.74 0.93 33.3% 5.92 26.3% 6.54 42.9% 1.25 50.0% 0.000

Position- and Shot-Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part IV): Free Throw Shooting

So far in this series I've looked at inside, mid-range, and 3-pt scoring. In this post,  I will define the rating for foul shooting. The final post of the series will look at the total scoring rating, which is simply the sum of all four parts.

The logic for developing the foul shooting rating is essentially the same as for all the previous ratings. We compare the player's free throw rate (FTA per 100 possessions) and free throw efficiency to the league averages at his position.

As always, we demonstrate the rating calculation with a specific player. In this case, we'll use Kevin Martin who basically makes his living at the charity stripe:

PSAMS_{ft}=4.41*(0.891-0.801)+(12.2-4.41)*(0.891-1.08*0.44)+(0.856-0.333)=4.14

Kevin Martin averages 12.2 FTA per 100 possessions at 89.1%. The league averages for SG are 4.41 and 80.1%, respectively. The first term in the rating, therefore, represents Martin's marginal value for the FTA he is expected to take. The second term represents the marginal value attributed to his additional FTA above the average. The term 1.08*0.44 represents the value that those FTA would bring if they were average possessions. Here, 1.08 is the approximate point value of a possession and 0.44 is the conversion factor to determine how many possessions would have been used by a certain number of FTA. Finally, the third term represents the marginal value of the Martin's AND1 free throw rate (per 100 possessions). Clearly, Martin generates a tremendous amount of value from his free throws. In fact, as you will see in the next post, his free throw rating alone is enough to propel him into the overall top 5. Of course, if we knew more specifically where on the court Martin draws fouls, the value could be distributed into the other three ratings. But we don't have those data, so for now, we have to resort to this separate rating for free throws.

Here's the entire list of players with above average possessions and games started (overall rank (ORK) and position rank (PRK)):

ORK PRK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS-FT FTR FT% AND1_RATE
1 1 Kevin Martin HOU SG 4.14 12.2 89.1% 0.856
2 1 Kevin Durant OKC SF 3.22 10.8 88.0% 0.618
3 2 Carmelo Anthony DEN SF 2.81 11.0 81.3% 0.880
4 2 Kobe Bryant LAL SG 2.61 10.3 82.0% 0.831
5 1 Dirk Nowitzki DAL PF 2.51 8.6 90.0% 0.626
6 1 Russell Westbrook OKC PG 2.49 10.9 83.4% 0.683
7 3 Dwyane Wade MIA SG 2.22 11.0 73.4% 1.138
8 2 Rodney Stuckey DET PG 2.18 8.5 85.6% 1.028
9 3 Chauncey Billups DEN PG 2.16 8.4 93.0% 0.431
10 2 Kevin Love MIN PF 2.13 8.9 84.4% 0.610
11 1 Brook Lopez NJN C 2.10 8.1 76.3% 1.034
12 4 Derrick Rose CHI PG 2.09 9.1 85.2% 0.766
13 3 Danilo Gallinari NYK SF 2.07 8.4 89.4% 0.308
14 4 Manu Ginobili SAS SG 2.07 7.9 87.7% 0.656
15 4 LeBron James MIA SF 2.06 10.4 74.9% 0.981
16 3 Amare Stoudemire NYK PF 2.06 9.5 77.3% 0.997
17 5 Paul Pierce BOS SF 1.94 7.8 85.0% 0.786
18 5 Deron Williams UTA PG 1.92 8.6 85.5% 0.742
19 6 Ramon Sessions CLE PG 1.79 9.7 82.3% 0.506
20 7 Devin Harris NJN PG 1.77 9.0 83.6% 0.625
21 2 Andrea Bargnani TOR C 1.77 6.8 79.8% 0.830
22 6 Danny Granger IND SF 1.74 8.1 85.3% 0.459
23 5 Eric Gordon LAC SG 1.72 7.8 82.3% 0.788
24 4 Chris Bosh MIA PF 1.59 8.2 80.0% 0.662
25 3 Nene Hilario DEN C 1.36 7.9 67.2% 1.068
26 5 Pau Gasol LAL PF 1.24 6.8 80.7% 0.741
27 4 Dwight Howard ORL C 1.16 15.6 57.4% 0.878
28 6 Tyler Hansbrough IND PF 1.10 7.8 76.6% 0.596
29 8 Chris Paul NOH PG 1.10 6.7 87.7% 0.470
30 6 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG 1.02 6.6 79.4% 0.674
31 7 David West NOH PF 0.98 6.7 79.3% 0.624
32 8 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF 0.96 6.9 77.0% 0.668
33 5 DeMarcus Cousins SAC C 0.94 8.2 66.0% 0.684
34 6 Tyson Chandler DAL C 0.92 7.0 71.2% 0.534
35 9 Blake Griffin LAC PF 0.90 10.5 62.3% 1.106
36 10 Zach Randolph MEM PF 0.84 7.0 73.7% 0.764
37 7 Wes Matthews POR SG 0.78 5.8 85.5% 0.335
38 8 Stephen Jackson CHA SG 0.77 6.4 81.3% 0.379
39 9 Richard Hamilton DET SG 0.71 6.0 84.9% 0.218
40 7 Roy Hibbert IND C 0.70 5.6 71.8% 0.609
41 8 Marc Gasol MEM C 0.70 5.4 71.9% 0.639
42 9 D.J. Augustin CHA PG 0.69 5.3 91.2% 0.467
43 9 Joakim Noah CHI C 0.64 5.9 71.8% 0.472
44 10 Monta Ellis GSW SG 0.63 6.4 78.4% 0.441
45 10 Al Jefferson UTA C 0.62 4.5 71.8% 0.802
46 7 Andrei Kirilenko UTA SF 0.62 6.7 76.0% 0.484
47 11 Randy Foye LAC SG 0.57 4.8 91.5% 0.235
48 8 Gerald Wallace CHA SF 0.57 7.7 72.6% 0.402
49 11 Brandon Bass ORL PF 0.57 6.0 80.0% 0.388
50 12 Paul Millsap UTA PF 0.55 6.0 72.5% 0.798
51 13 Andray Blatche WAS PF 0.55 6.2 75.7% 0.571
52 12 Brandon Roy POR SG 0.54 5.5 84.0% 0.295
53 13 Nick Young WAS SG 0.52 5.3 83.3% 0.383
54 10 Andre Miller POR PG 0.52 5.8 87.5% 0.272
55 11 John Wall WAS PG 0.44 7.4 75.3% 0.467
56 9 Rudy Gay MEM SF 0.43 5.5 79.8% 0.441
57 14 Tyreke Evans SAC SG 0.42 6.0 74.9% 0.564
58 12 Steve Nash PHX PG 0.39 4.8 92.8% 0.289
59 14 Kevin Garnett BOS PF 0.39 4.9 85.4% 0.287
60 10 Grant Hill PHX SF 0.36 5.0 81.4% 0.426
61 11 Tim Duncan SAS C 0.34 5.9 70.3% 0.263
62 11 Marvin Williams ATL SF 0.34 4.7 85.3% 0.320
63 13 Stephen Curry GSW PG 0.33 4.1 95.1% 0.445
64 14 Brandon Jennings MIL PG 0.29 5.8 84.3% 0.246
65 12 Michael Beasley MIN SF 0.29 5.4 72.4% 0.718
66 15 Jeff Green OKC PF 0.29 4.7 79.8% 0.521
67 15 Jodie Meeks PHI SG 0.27 4.1 92.0% 0.204
68 16 Joe Johnson ATL SG 0.24 4.8 81.9% 0.361
69 15 Darren Collison IND PG 0.24 4.4 88.8% 0.512
70 17 Tony Allen MEM SG 0.21 6.0 73.5% 0.423
71 18 Ray Allen BOS SG 0.17 3.8 91.7% 0.277
72 12 Andrew Bynum LAL C 0.15 6.9 63.2% 0.328
73 16 J.J. Hickson CLE PF 0.14 7.9 65.2% 0.503
74 13 Al Horford ATL C 0.14 3.4 78.0% 0.380
75 17 Carlos Boozer CHI PF 0.13 6.2 67.6% 0.650
76 18 Antawn Jamison CLE PF 0.13 6.0 71.2% 0.472
77 19 David Lee GSW PF 0.13 4.5 75.8% 0.596
78 20 Josh Smith ATL PF 0.10 6.0 71.2% 0.429
79 13 John Salmons MIL SF 0.09 4.8 80.5% 0.295
80 19 Kirk Hinrich WAS SG 0.07 3.3 90.3% 0.427
81 21 Amir Johnson TOR PF 0.06 3.8 78.3% 0.644
82 20 Gerald Henderson CHA SG 0.03 5.0 77.3% 0.295
83 14 Luol Deng CHI SF -0.00 5.2 74.4% 0.371
84 16 Tony Parker SAS PG -0.00 5.7 74.6% 0.554
85 22 Elton Brand PHI PF -0.01 4.8 76.4% 0.359
86 21 Ben Gordon DET SG -0.01 3.8 87.3% 0.252
87 23 Luis Scola HOU PF -0.03 5.8 72.6% 0.273
88 24 Ersan Ilyasova MIL PF -0.08 3.5 89.8% 0.212
89 14 Kwame Brown CHA C -0.10 6.7 54.3% 0.706
90 15 Samuel Dalembert SAC C -0.14 3.6 70.1% 0.320
91 17 Raymond Felton NYK PG -0.14 4.1 88.8% 0.245
92 18 Beno Udrih SAC PG -0.15 3.8 87.4% 0.409
93 15 Andre Iguodala PHI SF -0.23 6.2 67.9% 0.280
94 22 Anthony Morrow NJN SG -0.26 2.9 92.9% 0.205
95 23 Arron Afflalo DEN SG -0.28 3.3 84.8% 0.263
96 16 Greg Monroe DET C -0.29 5.3 59.5% 0.343
97 19 Ty Lawson DEN PG -0.31 4.8 73.9% 0.520
98 16 Nicolas Batum POR SF -0.34 3.2 82.7% 0.302
99 25 Serge Ibaka OKC PF -0.41 4.2 74.0% 0.241
100 17 Emeka Okafor NOH C -0.44 5.6 52.3% 0.550
101 26 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL PF -0.46 4.6 69.5% 0.287
102 27 Lamar Odom LAL PF -0.46 4.4 62.6% 0.635
103 18 JaVale McGee WAS C -0.47 5.1 55.3% 0.394
104 17 Richard Jefferson SAS SF -0.49 3.9 74.5% 0.234
105 18 Dorell Wright GSW SF -0.50 3.4 78.6% 0.208
106 19 Mike Dunleavy IND SF -0.50 3.6 79.2% 0.149
107 19 Chuck Hayes HOU C -0.51 3.3 64.2% 0.200
108 20 Sam Young MEM SF -0.51 3.4 73.8% 0.367
109 24 Marco Belinelli NOH SG -0.51 3.2 80.5% 0.192
110 20 Kyle Lowry HOU PG -0.51 4.7 75.1% 0.279
111 21 Jrue Holiday PHI PG -0.51 3.3 80.6% 0.492
112 21 Wilson Chandler NYK SF -0.52 3.0 79.6% 0.292
113 22 Shawn Marion DAL SF -0.52 3.6 76.1% 0.211
114 28 Josh McRoberts IND PF -0.53 3.4 73.1% 0.348
115 23 Travis Outlaw NJN SF -0.54 3.6 75.2% 0.231
116 20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA C -0.54 2.0 76.7% 0.139
117 22 Baron Davis LAC PG -0.56 3.8 76.6% 0.409
118 24 Francisco Garcia SAC SF -0.58 2.6 85.7% 0.219
119 25 Vince Carter PHX SG -0.61 3.2 69.8% 0.446
120 29 Kris Humphries NJN PF -0.63 4.7 64.0% 0.346
121 26 Raja Bell UTA SG -0.63 2.6 91.1% 0.025
122 23 Jameer Nelson ORL PG -0.64 3.5 82.8% 0.210
123 24 Luke Ridnour MIN PG -0.66 3.0 89.1% 0.185
124 27 Sonny Weems TOR SG -0.68 3.2 76.7% 0.144
125 25 Trevor Ariza NOH SF -0.71 3.8 67.6% 0.312
126 28 Tracy McGrady DET SG -0.72 4.0 68.0% 0.230
127 25 Mike Conley MEM PG -0.78 4.4 73.5% 0.166
128 26 Tayshaun Prince DET SF -0.79 3.3 68.6% 0.282
129 21 Marcus Camby POR C -0.80 2.3 57.8% 0.219
130 29 Landry Fields NYK SG -0.81 2.7 75.2% 0.201
131 30 DeJuan Blair SAS PF -0.83 3.7 62.1% 0.389
132 31 Jason Thompson SAC PF -0.86 5.5 58.4% 0.292
133 22 Darko Milicic MIN C -0.86 3.1 52.8% 0.237
134 26 Eric Bledsoe LAC PG -0.88 3.4 73.1% 0.343
135 32 Channing Frye PHX PF -0.88 2.0 81.4% 0.204
136 30 Carlos Delfino MIL SG -0.93 2.5 79.7% 0.034
137 23 Spencer Hawes PHI C -0.94 2.5 51.9% 0.215
138 31 Anthony Parker CLE SG -0.95 2.1 76.2% 0.224
139 27 Jose Calderon TOR PG -0.99 2.4 89.8% 0.097
140 27 Hedo Turkoglu ORL SF -1.03 3.1 65.4% 0.200
141 28 Omri Casspi SAC SF -1.08 2.7 66.7% 0.176
142 32 DeShawn Stevenson DAL SG -1.13 1.8 75.0% 0.137
143 29 Ron Artest LAL SF -1.14 2.9 65.9% 0.111
144 33 Jason Richardson ORL SG -1.15 2.3 71.3% 0.085
145 34 Thabo Sefolosha OKC SG -1.16 1.9 73.0% 0.127
146 33 Boris Diaw CHA PF -1.17 2.2 65.5% 0.193
147 35 Wesley Johnson MIN SG -1.19 2.1 68.6% 0.143
148 30 Ryan Gomes LAC SF -1.23 2.0 70.7% 0.075
149 28 Derek Fisher LAL PG -1.23 2.2 79.6% 0.163
150 29 Mario Chalmers MIA PG -1.25 2.0 86.9% 0.034
151 24 DeAndre Jordan LAC C -1.29 5.3 43.8% 0.179
152 25 Andrew Bogut MIL C -1.32 4.9 41.5% 0.237
153 34 Kenyon Martin DEN PF -1.32 2.7 54.5% 0.246
154 31 Shane Battier HOU SF -1.38 2.0 63.0% 0.084
155 26 Andris Biedrins GSW C -1.42 1.1 30.0% 0.036
156 35 Kurt Thomas CHI PF -1.47 1.3 59.3% 0.141
157 30 Jason Kidd DAL PG -1.47 1.5 86.7% 0.039
158 36 Keith Bogans CHI SG -1.59 1.1 63.3% 0.000
159 27 Ben Wallace DET C -1.63 2.6 33.3% 0.000
160 31 Mike Bibby ATL PG -1.76 1.4 61.9% 0.130
161 32 Rajon Rondo BOS PG -1.78 2.7 55.1% 0.105

Here is the list of players with above average possessions but below average games started:

ORK PRK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS-FT FTR FT% AND1_RATE
1 1 Corey Maggette MIL SF 3.21 11.5 83.4% 0.873
2 1 Louis Williams PHI PG 1.92 10.1 81.8% 0.541
3 1 James Harden OKC SG 1.52 7.8 83.7% 0.465
4 1 Hakim Warrick PHX PF 1.13 10.2 70.7% 0.512
5 1 Zaza Pachulia ATL C 1.10 7.4 74.1% 0.392
6 2 Jamal Crawford ATL SG 0.87 5.7 87.7% 0.371
7 2 George Hill SAS PG 0.78 6.0 85.8% 0.561
8 3 Jerryd Bayless TOR PG 0.72 6.9 80.7% 0.512
9 4 Jarrett Jack NOH PG 0.67 6.3 84.1% 0.444
10 2 Carl Landry SAC PF 0.61 7.0 68.6% 0.883
11 2 Ryan Hollins CLE C 0.41 6.7 65.3% 0.488
12 3 C.J. Miles UTA SG 0.39 4.8 81.7% 0.520
13 5 Will Bynum DET PG 0.38 5.2 85.5% 0.477
14 3 Marcin Gortat PHX C 0.34 5.3 71.3% 0.353
15 4 J.J. Redick ORL SG 0.30 4.2 91.5% 0.246
16 6 Shaun Livingston CHA PG 0.26 4.9 85.0% 0.518
17 7 Jose Barea DAL PG 0.13 4.3 83.1% 0.671
18 5 Rudy Fernandez POR SG 0.11 4.0 86.8% 0.297
19 6 Jason Terry DAL SG 0.11 4.1 86.5% 0.286
20 7 Daniel Gibson CLE SG 0.06 4.3 83.1% 0.306
21 3 Anthony Tolliver MIN PF 0.06 4.3 78.4% 0.482
22 4 Glen Davis BOS PF 0.04 5.9 72.1% 0.332
23 8 Leandro Barbosa TOR SG 0.02 4.5 77.2% 0.443
24 2 Martell Webster MIN SF 0.02 5.3 75.9% 0.277
25 9 J.R. Smith DEN SG -0.04 5.2 73.3% 0.381
26 3 Chase Budinger HOU SF -0.05 3.7 84.0% 0.382
27 10 Shannon Brown LAL SG -0.11 3.0 91.0% 0.341
28 5 Darrell Arthur MEM PF -0.11 3.9 80.7% 0.359
29 11 Corey Brewer MIN SG -0.14 5.8 68.8% 0.399
30 6 Ryan Anderson ORL PF -0.15 4.0 80.4% 0.298
31 4 Jared Dudley PHX SF -0.18 4.9 72.4% 0.366
32 5 Al-Farouq Aminu LAC SF -0.29 3.9 75.9% 0.392
33 12 Evan Turner PHI SG -0.35 3.4 79.8% 0.326
34 13 Reggie Williams GSW SG -0.38 3.8 72.5% 0.442
35 4 Ronny Turiaf NYK C -0.45 4.0 58.9% 0.357
36 5 Nick Collison OKC C -0.46 2.1 70.7% 0.321
37 14 Courtney Lee HOU SG -0.49 3.4 78.8% 0.212
38 15 Sasha Vujacic NJN SG -0.50 3.1 85.7% 0.101
39 16 Paul George IND SG -0.50 3.6 73.6% 0.319
40 7 Thaddeus Young PHI PF -0.51 3.8 66.9% 0.500
41 6 Austin Daye DET SF -0.53 3.8 74.5% 0.222
42 17 O.J. Mayo MEM SG -0.54 3.5 78.6% 0.140
43 18 Gary Neal SAS SG -0.54 2.8 77.5% 0.403
44 8 Jordan Hill HOU PF -0.57 3.3 65.3% 0.600
45 9 Charlie Villanueva DET PF -0.57 3.5 75.5% 0.193
46 7 Kyle Korver CHI SF -0.60 2.5 92.1% 0.066
47 8 Gordon Hayward UTA SF -0.64 3.9 69.7% 0.266
48 19 Willie Green NOH SG -0.64 3.0 75.8% 0.293
49 10 Al Harrington DEN PF -0.67 3.2 70.5% 0.360
50 6 Joel Anthony MIA C -0.68 2.6 65.7% 0.111
51 9 James Jones MIA SF -0.74 2.4 87.0% 0.103
52 11 Taj Gibson CHI PF -0.75 4.5 66.7% 0.158
53 20 Brandon Rush IND SG -0.86 3.0 75.2% 0.088
54 8 Jordan Farmar NJN PG -0.86 2.8 83.9% 0.211
55 9 Keyon Dooling MIL PG -0.93 2.7 84.3% 0.154
56 21 Ronnie Brewer CHI SG -0.94 3.7 63.9% 0.214
57 22 Wayne Ellington MIN SG -0.96 2.0 77.1% 0.211
58 10 Donte Greene SAC SF -1.10 2.7 62.7% 0.271
59 12 Vladimir Radmanovic GSW PF -1.10 1.4 87.5% 0.088
60 13 Antonio McDyess SAS PF -1.11 2.8 67.6% 0.077
61 10 Toney Douglas NYK PG -1.17 2.6 78.4% 0.103
62 14 Ed Davis TOR PF -1.27 3.8 51.7% 0.326
63 15 Matt Bonner SAS PF -1.28 1.5 72.5% 0.109
64 11 Eric Maynor OKC PG -1.35 2.5 71.4% 0.135
65 12 Earl Watson UTA PG -1.50 2.7 67.9% 0.035
66 13 Steve Blake LAL PG -1.72 1.0 85.7% 0.000
67 7 Brendan Haywood DAL C -1.91 6.7 33.1% 0.319

Position- and Shot-Location-Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part II): Mid-Range Shooting

No surprises. Dirk is the king of mid-range shooting.

In my last post, I introduced a new marginal scoring stat (PSAMS) and posted the formulas and ratings for inside scoring. Here, I will introduce the metric for evaluating mid-range shooting, which I define as any shot in between 3 ft from the rim and the 3-pt line. I lump all these shots together because, according to Hoopdata, the averages for 3-9 ft (39%), 10-15 ft (39.3%), and 16-23 ft (39.4%), are very similar (especially compared to the averages for inside scoring, 64.1%, and 3-pt shooting, 53.8%).

Recall (or learn for the first time) that the league-average effective FG% (eFG%) is about 50% (to be exact, it's 49.8%). The fact that the average mid-range shot is actually worse than the, uh, average average shot(?), makes evaluation somewhat trickier, and likely somewhat more open to challenge. Here's why. In theory, players hurt their teams when they take mid-range shots. Unless you're Dirk Nowitzki, that is. Among the 150 or so players in my database (>40+ games, >25+ mpg), Dirk is the only one who shot better than 50% from mid-range. As I've written previously (here and here), I believe that mid-range shots are an important and inevitable part of the game, and that, because somebody has to take those shots, you just want to make sure your best shooter is the one doing it. If you think about it this way, you begin to realize that the players who are given the responsibility risk hurting their overall averages. To be sure, some players may force too many of those shots, but it's very difficult to know which shots are necessary (after all, they don't tell us!).

Therefore, what I've come up with for the metric actually is a bit of a hedge, because it averages the two philosophies. In both philosophies, players who shoot less than their "fair share" of mid-range shots (defined by the average mid-range FGA for their position) are penalized for their "undershooting". How this is done will be explained a bit later. Where the philosophies differ is their handling of players who shoot more than the average number of mid-range shots for their position. How do we handle those extra shots?

  • Philosophy I: All "extra" mid-range FGA are shots taken away from teammates who would have taken average ("better") shots, i.e. shots that should be compared to the league-average 50%.
  • Philosophy II: All "extra" mid-range FGA are not really extra at all, and would have still been taken by a teammate. Therefore, these shots should also be compared to the average mid-range shot efficiency of ~39%.

You can see how these are two very different viewpoints, right? In fact, I would argue it's one of the central debates of basketball fandom, one that separates Kobe Bryant (and Monta Ellis) fans from their detractors, for example. There's really no good way right now to resolve the debate, so for now, I'm going to calculate the rating using both philosophies, and then take the simple average between them. Having said that, I think the final results will seem reasonable to folks on both sides of the argument.

As in my last post, I will use a couple of players to illustrate the actual calculation. First up is a no-brainer, Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk averaged 13.8 mid-range FGA per 40 minutes with 50.4% efficiency. Here's how I calculate his rating according to Philosophy I:

PSAMS_{MR}^I = 2*(13.3 - 8.6)*(50.4-49.8) + 2*8.6*(50.4-40.2)=1.81

The first term on the right represents the "extra" mid-range shots, which according to Philosophy I, are compared to the league-average average shot efficiency (I know, try saying that 10 times fast). The second term represents the average number of mid-range shots (for the PF position), which are being compared to the average mid-range shot efficiency for PF. Follow all that? Here's how Dirk rates according to Philosophy II:

PSAMS_{MR}^{II} = 2*13.3*(50.4-40.2)=2.71

That one is simple, right? Just compare all his shots to the average mid-range efficiency for PF. Dirk's final rating is then simply the average of the two (2.26).

Now we need to look at a player that shoots fewer than the average mid-range FGA. Arron Afflalo is one such "undershooter", taking only 3.8 mid-range FGA per 40 compared to the average 6.7 for the SG position. Here's how I calculate the rating for Afflalo (there is no need to distinguish between the two philosophies):

PSAMS_{MR}=2*3.8*(44.7-39.4)-2*(6.7-3.8)*(49.8-39.4)=-0.20

The first term here represents the shots that Afflalo did take compared to the average mid-range efficiency for SG. The second term represents a "penalty" for undershooting. The idea is that the shots that he didn't take would be shifted to teammates who otherwise would have taken better shots. Therefore, the efficiency differential (49.8-39.4) represents the difference between an average shot and an average mid-range shot. The reason I believe we need such a penalty is that if players simply "opt out" of these types of shots, their PSAMS would be 0, which would make them appear to be better shooters than about half the players at their position. Any system that rewards a player for not shooting at all doesn't make sense to me. You can't win games by opting out of shooting.

With the groundwork laid out, let's get to the ratings. Here are the top and bottom 25, respectively.

Top 25 Mid-Range Shooters

The FGA and FG% are for mid-range shots.

RANK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
1 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 4 13.3 50.4% 2.25
2 Al Horford ATL 5 10.0 49.0% 1.39
3 Elton Brand PHI 4 10.7 46.7% 1.19
4 Luke Ridnour MIN 1 7.0 47.1% 1.10
5 Beno Udrih SAC 1 6.8 47.1% 1.08
6 Steve Nash PHO 1 7.7 46.8% 1.08
7 LeBron James MIA 3 9.5 45.3% 1.08
8 David West NOR 4 12.7 45.7% 0.99
9 Stephen Curry GSW 1 8.1 45.7% 0.92
10 Anthony Morrow NJN 2 6.4 46.9% 0.87
11 Kevin Garnett BOS 4 10.3 44.7% 0.75
12 Luis Scola HOU 4 13.2 44.7% 0.73
13 Chris Paul NOR 1 8.1 44.4% 0.72
14 Jason Terry DAL 2 9.4 44.7% 0.71
15 Pau Gasol LAL 4 9.9 44.4% 0.71
16 Brandon Bass ORL 4 8.8 44.3% 0.70
17 Ray Allen BOS 2 5.7 47.4% 0.67
18 Sasha Vujacic NJN 2 6.8 44.1% 0.63
19 Paul Millsap UTH 4 9.1 44.0% 0.63
20 Chris Bosh MIA 4 10.8 43.5% 0.50
21 Jamal Crawford ATL 2 6.7 43.3% 0.49
22 Tony Parker SAS 1 8.6 43.0% 0.48
23 Amare Stoudemire NYK 4 13.5 43.7% 0.46
24 Deron Williams UTH 1 6.3 42.9% 0.46
25 Joe Johnson ATL 2 9.7 43.3% 0.44

Bottom 25 Mid-Range Shooters

Some of the names on this list may surprise you, but before bugging out, make sure to look at their FGA and FG%, and compare those to the players on the Top 25 list, and keep the two philosophies in mind.

RANK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
152 Andray Blatche WAS 4 10.6 31.1% -2.12
151 Greg Monroe DET 4 2.4 25.0% -1.94
150 Marcus Camby POR 4 3.8 28.9% -1.80
149 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 4 11.3 33.6% -1.75
148 Tyreke Evans SAC 1 8.1 29.6% -1.68
147 Trevor Ariza NOR 3 3.8 23.7% -1.59
146 John Wall WAS 1 7.5 29.3% -1.54
145 Russell Westbrook OKC 1 10.2 34.3% -1.34
144 Ron Artest LAL 3 3.7 27.0% -1.34
143 J.J. Hickson CLE 4 8.8 33.0% -1.30
142 Brandon Rush IND 2 4.5 31.1% -1.24
141 Landry Fields NYK 2 2.4 33.3% -1.22
140 Wesley Matthews POR 2 4.4 31.8% -1.18
139 Jodie Meeks PHI 2 2.3 34.8% -1.17
138 Kenyon Martin DEN 4 6.0 35.0% -1.13
137 Chuck Hayes HOU 5 2.7 33.3% -1.13
136 Jason Kidd DAL 1 2.3 34.8% -1.12
135 Danilo Gallinari NYK 3 3.6 30.6% -1.09
134 DeAndre Jordan LAC 5 1.0 40.0% -1.09
133 Kwame Brown CHA 5 3.5 34.3% -1.03
132 Brandon Roy POR 2 9.1 35.2% -1.02
131 Kyle Lowry HOU 1 3.9 33.3% -1.01
130 James Harden OKC 2 2.7 37.0% -1.00
129 Thabo Sefolosha OKC 2 2.0 40.0% -0.99
128 Jason Richardson ORL 2 4.3 34.9% -0.92

Here are the ratings broken down by position (ORNK is overall ranking and PRNK is ranking by position):

PG

ORNK PRNK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
4 1 Luke Ridnour MIN 1 7.0 47.1% 1.10
5 2 Beno Udrih SAC 1 6.8 47.1% 1.08
6 3 Steve Nash PHO 1 7.7 46.8% 1.08
9 4 Stephen Curry GSW 1 8.1 45.7% 0.92
13 5 Chris Paul NOR 1 8.1 44.4% 0.72
22 6 Tony Parker SAS 1 8.6 43.0% 0.48
24 7 Deron Williams UTH 1 6.3 42.9% 0.46
32 8 Raymond Felton NYK 1 6.5 41.5% 0.34
48 9 Jose Calderon TOR 1 5.8 41.4% 0.13
49 10 George Hill SAS 1 5.2 42.3% 0.07
52 11 Jameer Nelson ORL 1 5.7 40.4% -0.01
54 12 Devin Harris NJN 1 6.7 38.8% -0.03
55 13 Jrue Holiday PHI 1 6.7 38.8% -0.03
56 14 Darren Collison IND 1 8.3 39.8% -0.06
59 15 Daniel Gibson CLE 1 5.5 40.0% -0.10
64 16 Mike Conley MEM 1 6.0 38.3% -0.18
68 17 Baron Davis LAC 1 6.7 37.3% -0.23
69 18 Andre Miller POR 1 8.3 38.6% -0.26
70 19 Derrick Rose CHI 1 9.2 39.1% -0.26
76 20 Ty Lawson DEN 1 4.1 41.5% -0.32
83 21 Rodney Stuckey DET 1 7.1 36.6% -0.39
92 22 Brandon Jennings MIL 1 6.8 35.3% -0.52
93 23 Ramon Sessions CLE 1 7.7 36.4% -0.52
98 24 Rajon Rondo BOS 1 5.2 36.5% -0.53
97 25 Chauncey Billups DEN 1 5.2 36.5% -0.53
111 26 Derek Fisher LAL 1 5.1 35.3% -0.68
115 27 D.J. Augustin CHA 1 4.5 35.6% -0.74
125 28 Mike Bibby ATL 1 3.7 35.1% -0.90
131 29 Kyle Lowry HOU 1 3.9 33.3% -1.01
136 30 Jason Kidd DAL 1 2.3 34.8% -1.12
145 31 Russell Westbrook OKC 1 10.2 34.3% -1.34
146 32 John Wall WAS 1 7.5 29.3% -1.54
148 33 Tyreke Evans SAC 1 8.1 29.6% -1.68

SG

ORNK PRNK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
10 1 Anthony Morrow NJN 2 6.4 46.9% 0.87
14 2 Jason Terry DAL 2 9.4 44.7% 0.71
17 3 Ray Allen BOS 2 5.7 47.4% 0.67
18 4 Sasha Vujacic NJN 2 6.8 44.1% 0.63
21 5 Jamal Crawford ATL 2 6.7 43.3% 0.49
25 6 Joe Johnson ATL 2 9.7 43.3% 0.44
28 7 DeMar DeRozan TOR 2 10.4 43.3% 0.42
30 8 Ben Gordon DET 2 7.1 42.3% 0.37
31 9 Dwyane Wade MIA 2 8.9 42.7% 0.36
33 10 Kobe Bryant LAL 2 14.3 43.4% 0.33
36 11 Kirk Hinrich WAS 2 7.2 41.7% 0.28
39 12 Nick Young WAS 2 10.8 42.6% 0.26
66 13 Manu Ginobili SAS 2 5.5 40.0% -0.22
67 14 Arron Afflalo DEN 2 3.8 44.7% -0.23
71 15 J.J. Redick ORL 2 4.2 42.9% -0.26
79 16 John Salmons MIL 2 7.9 38.0% -0.35
80 17 Stephen Jackson CHA 2 6.8 36.8% -0.37
81 18 O.J. Mayo MEM 2 7.7 37.7% -0.37
82 19 Raja Bell UTH 2 4.4 40.9% -0.38
84 20 Richard Hamilton DET 2 12.2 40.2% -0.39
86 21 Anthony Parker CLE 2 5.5 38.2% -0.42
87 22 Vince Carter PHO 2 7.1 36.6% -0.43
101 23 Eric Gordon LAC 2 6.8 35.3% -0.57
118 24 Kevin Martin HOU 2 8.4 35.7% -0.79
119 25 Monta Ellis GSW 2 10.0 37.0% -0.82
126 26 Andre Iguodala PHI 2 6.0 33.3% -0.90
128 27 Jason Richardson ORL 2 4.3 34.9% -0.92
129 28 Thabo Sefolosha OKC 2 2.0 40.0% -0.99
130 29 James Harden OKC 2 2.7 37.0% -1.00
132 30 Brandon Roy POR 2 9.1 35.2% -1.02
139 31 Jodie Meeks PHI 2 2.3 34.8% -1.17
140 32 Wesley Matthews POR 2 4.4 31.8% -1.18
141 33 Landry Fields NYK 2 2.4 33.3% -1.22
142 34 Brandon Rush IND 2 4.5 31.1% -1.24

SF

ORNK PRNK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
7 1 LeBron James MIA 3 9.5 45.3% 1.08
26 2 Shawn Marion DAL 3 8.4 41.7% 0.44
27 3 Paul Pierce BOS 3 5.8 41.4% 0.43
35 4 Kevin Durant OKC 3 11.1 41.4% 0.28
38 5 Hedo Turkoglu ORL 3 4.9 42.9% 0.27
40 6 Luol Deng CHI 3 6.1 39.3% 0.24
41 7 Grant Hill PHO 3 8.4 40.5% 0.24
43 8 Marvin Williams ATL 3 5.9 39.0% 0.18
46 9 Rudy Gay MEM 3 9.4 40.4% 0.16
50 10 Mike Dunleavy IND 3 4.1 43.9% 0.06
53 11 Wesley Johnson MIN 3 5.9 37.3% -0.02
57 12 Carmelo Anthony DEN 3 10.8 39.8% -0.06
60 13 Travis Outlaw NJN 3 6.3 36.5% -0.13
65 14 Ryan Gomes LAC 3 4.2 40.5% -0.19
72 15 Wilson Chandler NYK 3 6.7 35.8% -0.28
73 16 Tayshaun Prince DET 3 10.6 38.7% -0.28
88 17 Jared Dudley PHO 3 3.9 38.5% -0.44
89 18 Carlos Delfino MIL 3 3.5 40.0% -0.45
90 19 Nicolas Batum POR 3 3.6 38.9% -0.49
102 20 Jeff Green OKC 3 5.8 32.8% -0.57
104 21 C.J. Miles UTH 3 7.3 34.2% -0.60
105 22 Danny Granger IND 3 8.0 35.0% -0.62
108 23 Gerald Wallace CHA 3 5.1 33.3% -0.63
110 24 Richard Jefferson SAS 3 3.1 38.7% -0.65
114 25 Shane Battier HOU 3 2.4 41.7% -0.71
117 26 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL 3 3.8 34.2% -0.79
123 27 Dorell Wright GSW 3 4.8 31.3% -0.88
124 28 Andrei Kirilenko UTH 3 4.0 32.5% -0.89
135 29 Danilo Gallinari NYK 3 3.6 30.6% -1.09
144 30 Ron Artest LAL 3 3.7 27.0% -1.34
147 31 Trevor Ariza NOR 3 3.8 23.7% -1.59

PF

ORNK PRNK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
1 1 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 4 13.3 50.4% 2.25
3 2 Elton Brand PHI 4 10.7 46.7% 1.19
8 3 David West NOR 4 12.7 45.7% 0.99
11 4 Kevin Garnett BOS 4 10.3 44.7% 0.75
12 5 Luis Scola HOU 4 13.2 44.7% 0.73
15 6 Pau Gasol LAL 4 9.9 44.4% 0.71
16 7 Brandon Bass ORL 4 8.8 44.3% 0.70
19 8 Paul Millsap UTH 4 9.1 44.0% 0.63
20 9 Chris Bosh MIA 4 10.8 43.5% 0.50
23 10 Amare Stoudemire NYK 4 13.5 43.7% 0.46
37 11 Zach Randolph MEM 4 9.5 42.1% 0.27
42 12 David Lee GSW 4 9.1 41.8% 0.23
51 13 LaMarcus Aldridge POR 4 11.1 41.4% 0.03
61 14 Josh Smith ATL 4 8.3 39.8% -0.13
62 15 Boris Diaw CHA 4 4.4 47.7% -0.16
75 16 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 4 6.6 40.9% -0.30
74 17 Serge Ibaka OKC 4 6.6 40.9% -0.30
78 18 Carlos Boozer CHI 4 10.4 39.4% -0.34
85 19 Antawn Jamison CLE 4 9.8 38.8% -0.40
91 20 Michael Beasley MIN 4 13.7 40.1% -0.52
95 21 Channing Frye PHO 4 5.0 42.0% -0.53
96 22 Glen Davis BOS 4 9.5 37.9% -0.53
99 23 Carl Landry SAC 4 9.3 37.6% -0.55
103 24 Lamar Odom LAL 4 5.1 41.2% -0.59
106 25 Amir Johnson TOR 4 4.5 42.2% -0.62
109 26 Blake Griffin LAC 4 9.4 37.2% -0.64
112 27 Kris Humphries NJN 4 5.6 39.3% -0.69
113 28 Kevin Love MIN 4 6.6 37.9% -0.70
127 29 Thaddeus Young PHI 4 7.6 35.5% -0.91
138 30 Kenyon Martin DEN 4 6.0 35.0% -1.13
143 31 J.J. Hickson CLE 4 8.8 33.0% -1.30
149 32 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 4 11.3 33.6% -1.75
150 33 Marcus Camby POR 4 3.8 28.9% -1.80
151 34 Greg Monroe DET 4 2.4 25.0% -1.94
152 35 Andray Blatche WAS 4 10.6 31.1% -2.12

C

Hey, Andrea Bargnani fans, this might be the one stat you can hang on your hat.

ORNK PRNK NAME TEAM POS FGA FG% PSAMS-MR
2 1 Al Horford ATL 5 10.0 49.0% 1.39
29 2 Andrea Bargnani TOR 5 12.0 44.2% 0.39
34 3 Marcin Gortat PHO 5 6.8 42.6% 0.29
44 4 Marc Gasol MEM 5 6.7 41.8% 0.18
45 5 Dwight Howard ORL 5 6.7 41.8% 0.18
47 6 Brook Lopez NJN 5 12.7 43.3% 0.15
58 7 Tim Duncan SAS 5 11.2 42.0% -0.09
63 8 Andrew Bogut MIL 5 7.3 39.7% -0.16
77 9 Andrew Bynum LAL 5 5.3 39.6% -0.33
94 10 Al Jefferson UTH 5 11.9 40.3% -0.52
100 11 Tyson Chandler DAL 5 2.1 47.6% -0.56
107 12 Nene Hilario DEN 5 3.5 40.0% -0.63
116 13 Joakim Noah CHI 5 3.7 37.8% -0.75
120 14 Emeka Okafor NOR 5 3.5 37.1% -0.83
121 15 JaVale McGee WAS 5 4.5 35.6% -0.84
122 16 Roy Hibbert IND 5 10.5 38.1% -0.86
133 17 Kwame Brown CHA 5 3.5 34.3% -1.03
134 18 DeAndre Jordan LAC 5 1.0 40.0% -1.09
137 19 Chuck Hayes HOU 5 2.7 33.3% -1.13

Next post will wrap up with 3-pt shooting and overall rankings combining all three shot distances into a single metric.

Position- and Shot-Location-Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part I): Inside Scoring

This is my first post in a while obviously. The lockout is really draining my enthusiasm. Every once in a while, though, an idea hits you, and you have to run with it, lockout be darned.

I happened to be looking at Hoopdata's shot location stats, and was trying to think about how to compare the efficiency of players at different positions. For example, how do we compare the inside efficiency of a point guard and a center? On average, Hoopdata says that centers shoot 66% at the rim compared to 59% for point guards. In absolute terms, then, centers are more efficient on average. However, in basketball as in other sports, measuring efficiency in "absolute" terms may not be the most valuable thing to do. To paraphrase Albert Einstein via James Carville, Everything is relative, stupid.

Here's what I came up with after a little bit of thought. I'm going to illustrate the calculation with a couple of examples. First up is Tony Parker. Tony Parker averaged 7.3 shot attempts (per 40 minutes) at the rim in 2011 according to Hoopdata. His FG% at the rim was 65.4%. The average number of shot attempts at the rim for point guards is 4.03. The average FG% at the rim for point guards is 60%. So, not only did Parker take more shot attempts than the average point guard, he shot them at a considerably better percentage. I propose that his "adjusted marginal scoring" adjusted for position and shot location (PSAMS) is as follows:

PSAMS = 2*(7.30-4.03)*(0.654-0.50)+2*4.03*(0.654-0.60) = 1.18

Let me explain this formula in steps. The first term on the right side accounts for the additional number of shots that Parker took compared to the average point guard at the rim and the marginal increase in efficiency that those shots had over the average efficiency of what those shots would have had if they were taken by an average player taking an average shot (i.e. league average efficiency). In other words, the assumption is that if Parker didn't take those 3.3 "extra" shots, an average player shooting with average efficiency would have. Of course, that isn't always or even mostly the case, but it's a common reference point that enables us to compare all players fairly. Ok, still with me? The second part of the equation represents the marginal value of the shots that Parker was "supposed" to take relative to other point guards. In the case of Parker, both terms are positive, and his total of 1.18 ranks him very high (#6) on the list of 152 players that I looked at (who qualified by playing 40+ games of 25+ minutes per game).

The second example is Steve Nash. Nash only attempted 2 shots at the rim per 40 minutes. His FG% was 72.8%, which is very high. The calculation for Nash goes as follows:

PSAMS = 2*(2-4.03)*(0.60-0.50)+2*2.0*(0.728-0.60) = 0.27

In Nash's case, the first term is actually negative, because Nash took fewer shots at the rim than the average PG, and those shots are normally more efficient than an average shot, thus costing his team a little bit (compared to average!). Now, the good news is that Nash's marginal value on the two shots he did take was positive, because his efficiency on those shots was above what an average point guard would do. In the end, Nash ranked #73 on the list.

The values 4.03 and 0.60, which represent the shot attempts and FG% for PG at the rim, are replaced by their respective values at each of the other positions. In this post, I am just looking at shots at the rim (< 3ft from the basket according to Hoopdata). Here are the top 20 overall:

Top 20

Thaddeus Young comes out on top, which is not surprising, given his 7.9 attempts per 40 at 73.4% efficiency. Also, for Warriors fans reading this, note that Monta Ellis comes in at #11 overall and #2 among shooting guards.

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS
1 1 Thaddeus Young PHI 3 2.92
2 2 LeBron James MIA 3 1.92
3 1 Dwight Howard ORL 5 1.74
4 1 Dwyane Wade MIA 2 1.73
5 3 Shawn Marion DAL 3 1.60
6 1 Tony Parker SAS 1 1.44
7 4 Wilson Chandler NYK 3 1.34
8 2 Nene Hilario DEN 5 1.33
9 5 Kevin Durant OKC 3 1.24
10 6 Tayshaun Prince DET 3 1.15
11 2 Monta Ellis GSW 2 1.15
12 7 Jeff Green OKC 3 1.08
13 8 Paul Pierce BOS 3 1.06
14 1 Blake Griffin LAC 4 1.04
15 3 Marcin Gortat PHO 5 0.85
16 2 Carlos Boozer CHI 4 0.83
17 2 Russell Westbrook OKC 1 0.82
18 3 Eric Gordon LAC 2 0.77
19 4 Kevin Martin HOU 2 0.76
20 5 Landry Fields NYK 2 0.73

Here are the bottom 20 on the list:

Bottom 20  

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS
152 34 Marcus Camby POR 4 -1.56
151 19 Andrea Bargnani TOR 5 -1.42
150 33 Channing Frye PHO 4 -1.35
149 33 Daniel Gibson CLE 1 -1.28
148 32 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 4 -1.08
147 32 Carlos Delfino MIL 3 -0.90
146 34 Anthony Morrow NJN 2 -0.87
145 33 Sasha Vujacic NJN 2 -0.85
144 32 Derek Fisher LAL 1 -0.82
143 18 Chuck Hayes HOU 5 -0.80
142 31 Luke Ridnour MIN 1 -0.75
141 32 Anthony Parker CLE 2 -0.69
140 17 Roy Hibbert IND 5 -0.68
139 30 Brandon Jennings MIL 1 -0.67
138 16 Kwame Brown CHA 5 -0.65
137 29 Jason Kidd DAL 1 -0.65
136 31 Elton Brand PHI 4 -0.64
135 15 Brook Lopez NJN 5 -0.63
134 30 Antawn Jamison CLE 4 -0.60
133 31 John Salmons MIL 2 -0.60

Here is the full list of players by position, with their overall rank and positional rank:

Point Guards 

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM PSAMS
6 1 Tony Parker SAS 1.44
17 2 Russell Westbrook OKC 0.82
22 3 Ty Lawson DEN 0.73
32 4 Derrick Rose CHI 0.55
38 5 Andre Miller POR 0.51
39 6 Tyreke Evans SAC 0.51
44 7 Rajon Rondo BOS 0.43
46 8 Beno Udrih SAC 0.42
55 9 John Wall WAS 0.30
56 10 Deron Williams UTH 0.30
58 11 Darren Collison IND 0.27
59 12 Ramon Sessions CLE 0.27
73 13 Steve Nash PHO 0.11
76 14 Kyle Lowry HOU 0.08
77 15 Jrue Holiday PHI 0.07
79 16 Mike Conley MEM 0.06
81 17 Baron Davis LAC 0.01
84 18 Rodney Stuckey DET -0.04
90 19 Stephen Curry GSW -0.12
93 20 Jameer Nelson ORL -0.16
96 21 George Hill SAS -0.18
99 22 Raymond Felton NYK -0.24
103 23 Chris Paul NOR -0.27
110 24 Jose Calderon TOR -0.32
115 25 Chauncey Billups DEN -0.39
119 26 Devin Harris NJN -0.44
121 27 D.J. Augustin CHA -0.46
130 28 Mike Bibby ATL -0.56
137 29 Jason Kidd DAL -0.65
139 30 Brandon Jennings MIL -0.67
142 31 Luke Ridnour MIN -0.75
144 32 Derek Fisher LAL -0.82
149 33 Daniel Gibson CLE -1.28

Shooting Guards

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM PSAMS
4 1 Dwyane Wade MIA 1.73
11 2 Monta Ellis GSW 1.15
18 3 Eric Gordon LAC 0.77
19 4 Kevin Martin HOU 0.76
20 5 Landry Fields NYK 0.73
24 6 Andre Iguodala PHI 0.71
43 7 Kobe Bryant LAL 0.43
50 8 Wesley Matthews POR 0.37
53 9 Manu Ginobili SAS 0.31
54 10 Joe Johnson ATL 0.30
66 11 Vince Carter PHO 0.22
67 12 DeMar DeRozan TOR 0.20
72 13 Jason Richardson ORL 0.11
74 14 Arron Afflalo DEN 0.10
75 15 James Harden OKC 0.09
82 16 Thabo Sefolosha OKC -0.00
83 17 Jason Terry DAL -0.02
86 18 Richard Hamilton DET -0.07
87 19 Ray Allen BOS -0.08
95 20 Brandon Roy POR -0.18
100 21 Kirk Hinrich WAS -0.24
101 22 Brandon Rush IND -0.25
104 23 Stephen Jackson CHA -0.29
106 24 Nick Young WAS -0.30
113 25 O.J. Mayo MEM -0.37
114 26 Jamal Crawford ATL -0.38
116 27 Raja Bell UTH -0.39
117 28 Jodie Meeks PHI -0.41
120 29 Ben Gordon DET -0.46
124 30 J.J. Redick ORL -0.49
133 31 John Salmons MIL -0.60
141 32 Anthony Parker CLE -0.69
145 33 Sasha Vujacic NJN -0.85
146 34 Anthony Morrow NJN -0.87

Small Forwards

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM PSAMS
1 1 Thaddeus Young PHI 2.92
2 2 LeBron James MIA 1.92
5 3 Shawn Marion DAL 1.60
7 4 Wilson Chandler NYK 1.34
9 5 Kevin Durant OKC 1.24
10 6 Tayshaun Prince DET 1.15
12 7 Jeff Green OKC 1.08
13 8 Paul Pierce BOS 1.06
23 9 Grant Hill PHO 0.72
27 10 Nicolas Batum POR 0.62
29 11 C.J. Miles UTH 0.59
31 12 Luol Deng CHI 0.59
35 13 Rudy Gay MEM 0.54
47 14 Andrei Kirilenko UTH 0.42
49 15 Trevor Ariza NOR 0.38
51 16 Danilo Gallinari NYK 0.35
57 17 Dorell Wright GSW 0.28
63 18 Jared Dudley PHO 0.24
68 19 Marvin Williams ATL 0.18
69 20 Danny Granger IND 0.18
70 21 Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.14
78 22 Mike Dunleavy IND 0.07
85 23 Richard Jefferson SAS -0.04
88 24 Gerald Wallace CHA -0.08
89 25 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL -0.11
105 26 Wesley Johnson MIN -0.30
107 27 Ron Artest LAL -0.31
108 28 Shane Battier HOU -0.31
123 29 Ryan Gomes LAC -0.48
128 30 Travis Outlaw NJN -0.52
129 31 Hedo Turkoglu ORL -0.53
147 32 Carlos Delfino MIL -0.90

Power Forwards

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM PSAMS
14 1 Blake Griffin LAC 1.04
16 2 Carlos Boozer CHI 0.83
25 3 Lamar Odom LAL 0.65
28 4 Kenyon Martin DEN 0.61
30 5 Greg Monroe DET 0.59
33 6 Andray Blatche WAS 0.55
36 7 Amir Johnson TOR 0.53
37 8 Carl Landry SAC 0.53
40 9 LaMarcus Aldridge POR 0.51
41 10 Serge Ibaka OKC 0.48
42 11 Paul Millsap UTH 0.48
48 12 Kevin Garnett BOS 0.40
52 13 Zach Randolph MEM 0.34
60 14 Kris Humphries NJN 0.26
61 15 Josh Smith ATL 0.24
64 16 David Lee GSW 0.23
65 17 Pau Gasol LAL 0.22
71 18 Amare Stoudemire NYK 0.13
80 19 J.J. Hickson CLE 0.04
94 20 Chris Bosh MIA -0.18
97 21 Luis Scola HOU -0.21
98 22 Michael Beasley MIN -0.23
102 23 DeMarcus Cousins SAC -0.25
109 24 David West NOR -0.32
112 25 Brandon Bass ORL -0.34
126 26 Dirk Nowitzki DAL -0.50
127 27 Kevin Love MIN -0.52
131 28 Glen Davis BOS -0.59
132 29 Boris Diaw CHA -0.59
134 30 Antawn Jamison CLE -0.60
136 31 Elton Brand PHI -0.64
148 32 Ersan Ilyasova MIL -1.08
150 33 Channing Frye PHO -1.35
152 34 Marcus Camby POR -1.56

Centers

RANK POS RANK NAME TEAM PSAMS
3 1 Dwight Howard ORL 1.74
8 2 Nene Hilario DEN 1.33
15 3 Marcin Gortat PHO 0.85
21 4 Andrew Bynum LAL 0.73
26 5 Tyson Chandler DAL 0.62
34 6 DeAndre Jordan LAC 0.54
45 7 JaVale McGee WAS 0.42
62 8 Emeka Okafor NOR 0.24
91 9 Al Jefferson UTH -0.12
92 10 Tim Duncan SAS -0.15
111 11 Al Horford ATL -0.33
118 12 Marc Gasol MEM -0.42
122 13 Andrew Bogut MIL -0.46
125 14 Joakim Noah CHI -0.50
135 15 Brook Lopez NJN -0.63
138 16 Kwame Brown CHA -0.65
140 17 Roy Hibbert IND -0.68
143 18 Chuck Hayes HOU -0.80
151 19 Andrea Bargnani TOR -1.42

Well, that's all I got for now. As always, feedback is welcome.

Edit: As Alex pointed out in the comments, the league average eFG% is 50%, not 54%. The ratings/rankings have been changed to reflect that.

Edit #2: You might disagree with the notion of adjusting for position. For those who do, I've calculated SAMS, which simply uses the league average shot attempts per 40 (3.4) and FG% at the rim (65%), thus, ignoring any position dependency. 

SAMS

As you can see, Dwight Howard is now on top, but Thaddeus Young is (perhaps, surprisingly) still #2 and very close behind. For Warriors fans, note that Monta Ellis still ranks ahead of David Lee even though position is not taken into account.

RANK NAME TEAM POS SAMS
1 Dwight Howard ORL 5 2.74
2 Thaddeus Young PHI 3 2.68
3 Nene Hilario DEN 5 2.33
4 Marcin Gortat PHO 5 1.85
5 Andrew Bynum LAL 5 1.73
6 Blake Griffin LAC 4 1.71
7 LeBron James MIA 3 1.68
8 Tyson Chandler DAL 5 1.62
9 DeAndre Jordan LAC 5 1.54
10 Dwyane Wade MIA 2 1.54
11 Carlos Boozer CHI 4 1.50
12 JaVale McGee WAS 5 1.42
13 Shawn Marion DAL 3 1.35
14 Lamar Odom LAL 4 1.32
15 Kenyon Martin DEN 4 1.28
16 Greg Monroe DET 4 1.26
17 Emeka Okafor NOR 5 1.24
18 Tony Parker SAS 1 1.23
19 Andray Blatche WAS 4 1.22
20 Amir Johnson TOR 4 1.20
21 Carl Landry SAC 4 1.20
22 LaMarcus Aldridge POR 4 1.17
23 Serge Ibaka OKC 4 1.15
24 Paul Millsap UTH 4 1.15
25 Wilson Chandler NYK 3 1.09
26 Kevin Garnett BOS 4 1.07
27 Zach Randolph MEM 4 1.01
28 Kevin Durant OKC 3 0.99
29 Monta Ellis GSW 2 0.96
30 Kris Humphries NJN 4 0.93
31 Josh Smith ATL 4 0.91
32 Tayshaun Prince DET 3 0.91
33 David Lee GSW 4 0.90
34 Pau Gasol LAL 4 0.89
35 Al Jefferson UTH 5 0.88
36 Tim Duncan SAS 5 0.85
37 Jeff Green OKC 3 0.83
38 Paul Pierce BOS 3 0.82
39 Amare Stoudemire NYK 4 0.80
40 J.J. Hickson CLE 4 0.70
41 Al Horford ATL 5 0.67
42 Russell Westbrook OKC 1 0.60
43 Marc Gasol MEM 5 0.58
44 Eric Gordon LAC 2 0.58
45 Kevin Martin HOU 2 0.57
46 Andrew Bogut MIL 5 0.54
47 Landry Fields NYK 2 0.54
48 Andre Iguodala PHI 2 0.52
49 Ty Lawson DEN 1 0.51
50 Joakim Noah CHI 5 0.50
51 Chris Bosh MIA 4 0.49
52 Grant Hill PHO 3 0.47
53 Luis Scola HOU 4 0.45
54 Michael Beasley MIN 4 0.44
55 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 4 0.42
56 Nicolas Batum POR 3 0.38
57 Brook Lopez NJN 5 0.37
58 Kwame Brown CHA 5 0.35
59 C.J. Miles UTH 3 0.35
60 David West NOR 4 0.35
61 Luol Deng CHI 3 0.34
62 Derrick Rose CHI 1 0.34
63 Brandon Bass ORL 4 0.33
64 Roy Hibbert IND 5 0.32
65 Andre Miller POR 1 0.30
66 Tyreke Evans SAC 1 0.29
67 Rudy Gay MEM 3 0.29
68 Kobe Bryant LAL 2 0.23
69 Rajon Rondo BOS 1 0.21
70 Beno Udrih SAC 1 0.21
71 Chuck Hayes HOU 5 0.20
72 Wesley Matthews POR 2 0.18
73 Andrei Kirilenko UTH 3 0.17
74 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 4 0.17
75 Kevin Love MIN 4 0.15
76 Trevor Ariza NOR 3 0.13
77 Manu Ginobili SAS 2 0.12
78 Joe Johnson ATL 2 0.11
79 Danilo Gallinari NYK 3 0.11
80 John Wall WAS 1 0.09
81 Deron Williams UTH 1 0.09
82 Glen Davis BOS 4 0.08
83 Boris Diaw CHA 4 0.07
84 Antawn Jamison CLE 4 0.07
85 Darren Collison IND 1 0.05
86 Ramon Sessions CLE 1 0.05
87 Dorell Wright GSW 3 0.04
88 Elton Brand PHI 4 0.03
89 Vince Carter PHO 2 0.03
90 DeMar DeRozan TOR 2 0.01
91 Jared Dudley PHO 3 -0.01
92 Marvin Williams ATL 3 -0.06
93 Danny Granger IND 3 -0.07
94 Jason Richardson ORL 2 -0.08
95 Arron Afflalo DEN 2 -0.10
96 James Harden OKC 2 -0.10
97 Carmelo Anthony DEN 3 -0.10
98 Steve Nash PHO 1 -0.11
99 Kyle Lowry HOU 1 -0.14
100 Jrue Holiday PHI 1 -0.14
101 Mike Conley MEM 1 -0.15
102 Mike Dunleavy IND 3 -0.18
103 Thabo Sefolosha OKC 2 -0.19
104 Baron Davis LAC 1 -0.20
105 Jason Terry DAL 2 -0.21
106 Rodney Stuckey DET 1 -0.25
107 Richard Hamilton DET 2 -0.26
108 Ray Allen BOS 2 -0.27
109 Richard Jefferson SAS 3 -0.28
110 Gerald Wallace CHA 3 -0.33
111 Stephen Curry GSW 1 -0.34
112 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL 3 -0.36
113 Brandon Roy POR 2 -0.37
114 Jameer Nelson ORL 1 -0.38
115 George Hill SAS 1 -0.40
116 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 4 -0.42
117 Andrea Bargnani TOR 5 -0.42
118 Kirk Hinrich WAS 2 -0.43
119 Brandon Rush IND 2 -0.44
120 Raymond Felton NYK 1 -0.45
121 Stephen Jackson CHA 2 -0.48
122 Chris Paul NOR 1 -0.49
123 Nick Young WAS 2 -0.50
124 Jose Calderon TOR 1 -0.54
125 Wesley Johnson MIN 3 -0.54
126 Ron Artest LAL 3 -0.55
127 Shane Battier HOU 3 -0.56
128 O.J. Mayo MEM 2 -0.57
129 Jamal Crawford ATL 2 -0.57
130 Raja Bell UTH 2 -0.58
131 Chauncey Billups DEN 1 -0.60
132 Jodie Meeks PHI 2 -0.60
133 Ben Gordon DET 2 -0.65
134 Devin Harris NJN 1 -0.65
135 D.J. Augustin CHA 1 -0.67
136 J.J. Redick ORL 2 -0.68
137 Channing Frye PHO 4 -0.68
138 Ryan Gomes LAC 3 -0.72
139 Travis Outlaw NJN 3 -0.76
140 Mike Bibby ATL 1 -0.77
141 Hedo Turkoglu ORL 3 -0.77
142 John Salmons MIL 2 -0.79
143 Jason Kidd DAL 1 -0.86
144 Anthony Parker CLE 2 -0.89
145 Brandon Jennings MIL 1 -0.89
146 Marcus Camby POR 4 -0.89
147 Luke Ridnour MIN 1 -0.96
148 Derek Fisher LAL 1 -1.04
149 Sasha Vujacic NJN 2 -1.05
150 Anthony Morrow NJN 2 -1.06
151 Carlos Delfino MIL 3 -1.15
152 Daniel Gibson CLE 1 -1.50

 

In Defense of Counterpart Defense

(Before reading this post, make sure you have read my method for implementing counterpart defense.)

The goal for any player valuation metric is — or arguably, should be — that it estimates the player's "true" value independent of his teammates. The player's individual or inherent value may change from year to year due to numerous factors, for example, aging or injuries. Ideally, though, the metric will be able to do two things: 1) separate the player from his teammates and 2) have predictive value.

Predictive value is often thought primarily of as y-t-y correlation. It can also be instructive to look at player value when he switches teams during the season. This is about as close to a control experiment as we can get in the NBA, because most trades tend to involve role players who won't significantly change the team ratings (shhh, don't tell the GM's). Also, in-season trades usually take place without as much accompanying personnel change as compared to y-t-y. (And even if you don't buy these arguments, I think the following data will probably win you over, anyway.)

With the above thought process serving as underlying motivation, I wanted to look at the correlation of the new counterpart defensive component for players who were traded in-season in 2009. I found 24 players who met my pt threshold of 400 possessions with each team. Here are those players with their associated teams:

NAME

Rafer Alston (MIA, NJN)
Steve Blake (POR, LAC)
Caron Butler (DAL, WAS)
Marcus Camby (LAC, POR)
Michael Finley (BOS, SAS)
Drew Gooden (LAC, DAL)
Brendan Haywood (WAS, DAL)
Larry Hughes (CHA, NYK)
Kris Humphries (DAL, NJN)
Stephen Jackson (GSW, CHA)
Antawn Jamison (CLE, WAS)
Jared Jeffries (NYK, HOU)
Carl Landry (HOU, SAC)
Kevin Martin (HOU, SAC)
Eric Maynor (UTA, OKC)
Flip Murray (CHA, CHI)
Travis Outlaw (LAC, POR)
Nate Robinson (NYK, BOS)
Sergio Rodriguez (SAC, NYK)
Quinton Ross (DAL, WAS)
Tyrus Thomas (CHI, CHA)
Al Thornton (WAS, LAC)
Hakim Warrick (CHI, MIL)
Eddie House (BOS, NYK)

Individual Defensive Ratings vs. Team Ratings

Let's look at how individual defensive ratings change as a function of change in the overall team rating before and after the trade. Team defensive ratings were gathered from basketball-reference.com. First up is the new D100 component of ezPM that incorporates counterpart defense. I should note that all regressions were done in R. For this first one, I will show the regression summary, so I can explain what values I'm looking at:

Call:lm(formula = DELCP ~ DELTM, data = stats)
Residuals:    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max
 -3.3559 -1.7102  0.3003  1.3137  3.7608 
Coefficients:            
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
(Intercept) -1.14417    0.39013  -2.933   0.0077 **
DELTM       -0.15877    0.08844  -1.795   0.0864 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 
Residual standard error: 1.9 on 22 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.1278,	Adjusted R-squared: 0.08814 
F-statistic: 3.223 on 1 and 22 DF,  p-value: 0.08635

The important values here are the regression coefficient (-0.15877) and the p-value (0.08635), which is normally not considered statistically significant. The coefficient tells us that for every 1 point increase in DRTG, the player's D100 decreases by about 0.16 pts. In other words, a player switching to a worse defensive team will have a slightly worse D100 rating. But it's not even statistically significant. Here's a plot of the data (click to enlarge):

Change in counterpart D100 rating vs. change in team defensive rating.

Now, let's take a look at what happens when we correlate the original D100 component of ezPM that splits credit among teammates:

Change in D100 with teammate split vs. change in team defensive rating.

For this regression, the slope is -0.144 and the p-value is 0.0515, just on the cusp of significance. The R^2 for this regression is 0.1616 compared to 0.1278. I hope you see the significance of this result. The D100 rating with counterpart incorporated is just a bit more separable from the teammate split. I assume at this point, some of you may be wondering what's the point of all this.

For those folks, look at this plot:

Change in individual DRTG vs. change in team DRTG.

This is the change in the player's "individual" DRTG as a function of the team DRTG. Recall — or learn for the first time — that DRTG is a component of Win Shares (see basketball-reference), which is a player metric based on the work of Dean Oliver. You're wondering about the regression? The p-value is 1.46e-13. Uh, yeah, it's significant. The R^2 is 0.9202, which means that about 92% of the individual DRTG change is explained by the change in team DRTG. NOW DO YOU GET IT? Ok, to spell it out, the defensive component of ezPM100 (even with the split in place) does a much better job of separating player value from his teammates. That was goal #1.

Split vs. Counterpart D100 as a Predictor

Let's move on to goal #2, which is to have the best predictive power. We've already ruled out individual DRTG as a predictor, since it is almost completely tied to team rating. Therefore, we will simply focus on whether split or counterpart D100 is a better predictor. What that means is that we will correlate the player's split or counterpart D100 before and after the trades:

D100 with counterpart before and after trade.

D100 with split credit before and after trade.

You can probably eyeball it, but for the D100 with counterparts, the p-value is 0.00628 (significant). The p-value for split credit is 0.0883 (not significant). The R^2 for counterpart D100 is 0.2933 compared to 0.1263 for split credit.

Conclusions

As stated at the top, a good metric should aim to separate player value from team value and be a good predictor. I think the data presented here present a fairly strong case that the counterpart defensive rating in ezPM is better than splitting value, and that it is better than the individual DRTG as used in Win Shares — and by extension, probably most team-based defensive metrics. If you've been following the development of ezPM, this is probably a) not surprising and b) still reassuring. In a future post, I will try to do the same type of analysis for offense. I think I will also add more trade data from previous seasons, and the current season when it's (finally) over.

More on Non-Steal Counterpart Turnovers

My last post suggested the idea of tabulating counterpart turnovers that are not the result of steals — in other words, not explicitly attributed to a particular player according to the box score (or play-by-play data). In the current iteration of ezPM, the credit for these turnovers are split amongst teammates. The question is whether we should, indeed, give some or all of the credit for these non-steal turnovers to their counterparts.

I went about trying to answer this question. First, I took the list of the top 50 players from the last post and calculated their rates for 2009. I restricted the comparison to players who had above average playing time (possessions), which left 36 players. Here are their ranks in ascending order by last season's rank:

NAME TEAM 2010 2009
Andrew Bogut MIL 19 3
Ersan Ilyasova MIL 32 5
D.J. Augustin CHA 21 7
C.J. Watson CHI 5 9
Brad Miller HOU 31 17
Ben Wallace DET 28 21
Jose Barea DAL 1 29
T.J. Ford IND 22 31
Mike Conley MEM 15 35
Jared Dudley PHX 46 37
Ty Lawson DEN 36 51
Josh Smith ATL 29 55
Spencer Hawes PHI 49 61
Brandon Jennings MIL 18 62
Channing Frye PHX 30 69
Luc Mbah a Moute MIL 42 80
Steve Nash PHX 25 83
Andrea Bargnani TOR 13 84
Jason Richardson PHX 41 86
Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 45 89
Serge Ibaka OKC 50 91
Beno Udrih SAC 11 114
Jameer Nelson ORL 24 119
Jason Thompson SAC 47 120
Emeka Okafor NOH 14 134
Kevin Love MIN 38 136
Anderson Varejao CLE 12 141
Rodney Stuckey DET 9 148
Shaquille O'Neal BOS 35 158
C.J. Miles UTA 27 159
Corey Brewer MIN 39 162
Joel Anthony MIA 48 164
Zach Randolph MEM 26 167
Hedo Turkoglu PHX 7 201
Amare Stoudemire NYK 40 206
Marcus Camby POR 20 215
AVERAGE 27.6 93.0

Recall that the ranks in the first column were from the top 50 players this season, so the average rank is obviously close to 25 (it would be exactly 25 if those 14 other players were not excluded). The average rank for these players in 2009 was 93 out of about 215 players, which is just a little bit better than what we might expect a random sample of 34 players to have, which suggests that the year-to-year correlation for this statistic is very low.

One might imagine that these non-steal counterpart turnovers are correlated to steal rates. Interestingly, there doesn't appear to be any significant correlation:

Counterpart TOV rate vs. steal rate per 100 possessions.

Another thing to look at is whether the counterpart turnover rate is correlated to the currently calculated DEF100, which splits credit among teammates. Somewhat surprisingly, once again, I did not find any significant correlation:

Counterpart turnover rate vs. ezPM defensive +/- per 100 possessions.

Ok, so the case for counterpart turnovers being due to skill is so far very weak, if not non-existent. Is it even worth worrying about? The answer is probably not. If we look at DEF100 calculated with individuals getting full credit for counterpart turnovers or split amongst teammates, there is very little difference:

Non-steal urnovers credited to counterparts vs. split amongst teammates.

This was a good exercise. It may be that certain players are better at forcing non-steal turnovers (i.e. traveling, double-dribble, etc.), but I don't think we're going to capture it with the PBP data. Going forward, I think it makes sense to give 50/50 weight to teammates and counterparts. It won't hurt, and it's probably the safe middle ground.

Non-Steal "Forced" Turnovers

A thread titled "Unrecorded Useful Stats" came up a few weeks back over at APBRmetrics. In it, Bob Chaikin (whom I believe works/consults for the Heat now) responded:

non-steal forced turnovers. any time a player commits a turnover that is not credited as a steal to a defender, credit a defender for good defense with a non-steal forced turnover....

surely there will be turnovers with no obvious defender deserving credit. but you count enough of these as credited to defenders and we'll get a good idea of who is making an impact on defense, similar to how we count blocks or charges drawn...

right now milwaukee is best in the league with 9.0 non-ST forced TO/100poss, the lakers the worst with just 6.7. but i wouldn't know which players on the bucks to give the credit to...

I replied:

My PBP code records these as "team turnovers", which I split credit among teammates. With a little bit more effort I could keep track of counterparts for these.

Happy to say, with just a few extra lines of code, these "non-steal" turnovers were a cinch to tabulate. To answer Bob's question, those players would be Keyon Dooling (#6), Brandon Jennings (#18), Andrew Bogut (#19), Ersan Ilyasova (#32), and Luc Mbah a Moute (#42), all of whom appear in the top 50. In the next post, I will see how this would affect ezPM stats. Here are the top 50 "pseudo-thiefs" (I was kind of shocked to see #3):

RANK NAME TEAM POSSESSIONS CP_TOV RATE100
1 Jose Barea DAL 1546 37 2.39
2 JaVale McGee WAS 2099 50 2.38
3 Vladimir Radmanovic GSW 1147 27 2.35
4 Greg Monroe DET 1591 36 2.26
5 C.J. Watson CHI 1017 23 2.26
6 Keyon Dooling MIL 1703 38 2.23
7 Hedo Turkoglu PHX 1168 26 2.23
8 Zaza Pachulia ATL 1037 23 2.22
9 Rodney Stuckey DET 2005 44 2.19
10 Brandon Bass ORL 1740 38 2.18
11 Beno Udrih SAC 2670 57 2.13
12 Anderson Varejao CLE 1838 39 2.12
13 Andrea Bargnani TOR 2584 53 2.05
14 Emeka Okafor NOH 2555 51 2.00
15 Mike Conley MEM 2967 59 1.99
16 Hakim Warrick PHX 1459 29 1.99
17 Marquis Daniels BOS 1362 27 1.98
18 Brandon Jennings MIL 1670 33 1.98
19 Andrew Bogut MIL 2246 44 1.96
20 Marcus Camby POR 1997 39 1.95
21 D.J. Augustin CHA 2461 48 1.95
22 T.J. Ford IND 1344 26 1.93
23 Nate Robinson BOS 1441 27 1.87
24 Jameer Nelson ORL 1874 35 1.87
25 Steve Nash PHX 2419 45 1.86
26 Zach Randolph MEM 2767 51 1.84
27 C.J. Miles UTA 1682 31 1.84
28 Ben Wallace DET 1575 29 1.84
29 Josh Smith ATL 2622 48 1.83
30 Channing Frye PHX 2462 45 1.83
31 Brad Miller HOU 1260 23 1.83
32 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 1866 34 1.82
33 Nazr Mohammed CHA 1107 20 1.81
34 Eric Maynor OKC 1115 20 1.79
35 Shaquille O'Neal BOS 1227 22 1.79
36 Ty Lawson DEN 2008 36 1.79
37 Ronny Turiaf NYK 1339 24 1.79
38 Kevin Love MIN 3093 55 1.78
39 Corey Brewer MIN 2028 36 1.78
40 Amare Stoudemire NYK 3109 55 1.77
41 Jason Richardson PHX 1529 27 1.77
42 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL 1768 31 1.75
43 Dante Cunningham POR 1543 27 1.75
44 James Jones MIA 1661 29 1.75
45 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 1381 24 1.74
46 Jared Dudley PHX 1844 32 1.74
47 Jason Thompson SAC 1506 26 1.73
48 Joel Anthony MIA 1279 22 1.72
49 Spencer Hawes PHI 1588 27 1.70
50 Serge Ibaka OKC 2136 36 1.69

Warriors Mid-Season Report Card

The Warriors are currently sitting at 19-25 with a point differential of -3.3. We can expect them to win 33 games at that level of play. Lately, though, the Warriors do seem to have improved. In fact, over the last 10 games, their point differential is +1.9 (not adjusted for strength of schedule). If the Warriors play this way the rest of the season, we could expect them to end up right around 40 wins. That may or may not be good enough to get them into the playoffs. We'll have to see if any big moves occur at the trade deadline. So, let's take a look at how the first half shaped up, using ezPM to hand out some grades.

My grading scheme uses a statistical technique called k-means clustering. Basically, the idea is that you have a set of N different numbers that you want to break down into k different groups. I took ezPM100 for all NBA players with above average possessions and broke that set into 13 groups, so I could assign grades (A+, A, A-, B+, ... F). Not surprisingly, it turns out that an ezPM100 of 0 would equate to a "C" grade. Now, say what you will about this system, but one thing you can't say is that it is biased. (Actually, I tell my students the same thing, so they can't really complain about their grades.) Ok, that's the setup. Now, here are the grades for the Warriors:

Golden state Warriors Report Card

GRADE NAME POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
B Stephen Curry 2047 2.37 2.56 0.21 -0.40 9.31 27.47% 14.14% 78.15%
B- Brandan Wright 280 1.76 2.28 1.10 -1.62 14.66 15.53% 32.43% 55.17%
B- Monta Ellis 3178 1.65 1.46 0.96 -0.76 4.77 30.53% 15.48% 72.61%
C Dorell Wright 3003 -0.48 -0.49 0.05 -0.05 -2.50 19.45% 22.11% 78.18%
C- Jeremy Lin 242 -1.07 -4.94 3.88 0.00 -24.50 20.17% 31.25% 80.00%
C- Acie Law 517 -1.12 0.07 -0.21 -0.98 0.42 16.28% 17.39% 75.00%
C- Andris Biedrins 1636 -1.19 -1.07 -0.92 0.80 -9.18 11.65% 38.40% 68.09%
D David Lee 2191 -2.23 -0.70 -0.51 -1.01 -3.29 21.43% 31.83% 60.87%
D Dan Gadzuric 521 -2.39 -6.05 -0.08 3.73 -33.91 17.83% 60.71% 52.94%
D Reggie Williams 1642 -2.56 0.61 -1.53 -1.64 3.06 20.05% 19.08% 62.20%
D- Vladimir Radmanovic 1123 -3.16 -0.90 -1.91 -0.36 -5.50 16.36% 28.93% 69.07%
F Jeff Adrien 295 -3.61 -1.99 -2.69 1.07 -13.72 14.50% 45.45% 61.90%
F Ekpe Udoh 394 -4.49 0.05 -0.17 -4.37 0.41 11.59% 32.35% 43.48%
F Rodney Carney 635 -4.57 -1.60 -1.63 -1.35 -9.16 17.43% 18.75% 67.39%
F Charlie Bell 195 -5.44 -6.64 0.88 0.32 -41.69 15.93% 33.33% 85.71%
F Louis Amundson 561 -7.45 -4.69 -1.62 -1.14 -28.64 16.37% 39.77% 48.61%

The brutal truth, eh? I know, doesn't feel good. Like I said at the top, though, things have been looking up lately. Here's a graph showing the ezPM trends for the five starters throughout the season so far (each data point represents about 2 weeks):

Statistical trends for the five Warriors starters.

To put everything in perspective, let me show you the grades for Boston and San Antonio, so you can see what it takes to be at the top.

Boston Celtics Report Card

GRADE NAME POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
A+ Delonte West 146 9.65 3.78 4.72 1.15 17.79 21.23% 20.00% 80.00%
A Rajon Rondo 2012 5.24 1.12 2.73 1.39 4.82 23.16% 43.88% 85.29%
A- Paul Pierce 2568 4.56 4.08 0.73 -0.25 17.24 23.68% 9.59% 83.18%
A- Kevin Garnett 1886 4.39 0.84 3.47 0.08 3.93 21.48% 20.50% 78.35%
A- Ray Allen 2652 3.59 2.71 0.81 0.07 13.45 20.15% 18.37% 82.84%
B+ Marquis Daniels 1362 2.67 0.05 2.67 -0.04 0.32 15.98% 21.35% 79.12%
B- Von Wafer 387 1.74 -0.53 3.86 -1.59 -2.67 19.82% 20.00% 63.64%
C+ Shaquille O'Neal 1227 0.51 0.87 0.28 -0.64 4.64 18.77% 32.33% 64.88%
D+ Nate Robinson 1399 -1.45 -1.41 -0.39 0.35 -6.40 22.06% 20.34% 84.85%
D Glen Davis 2201 -2.03 -1.03 1.03 -2.03 -5.13 20.13% 21.25% 59.19%
F Semih Erden 671 -5.58 -0.53 -2.55 -2.50 -3.54 14.85% 25.61% 55.41%
F Luke Harangody 221 -6.96 -2.73 -2.90 -1.34 -15.91 17.16% 30.30% 67.57%
F Jermaine O'Neal 561 -9.12 -3.42 -2.63 -3.07 -21.87 15.65% 27.87% 53.42%
F Avery Bradley 77 -14.56 -22.27 9.73 -2.02 -59.50 37.43% 25.00% 66.67%

San Antonio Spurs Report Card

GRADE NAME POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
A+ Larry Owens 40 16.33 6.65 6.30 3.38 48.33 13.75% 0.00% 100.00%
A- Manu Ginobili 2656 4.84 3.37 1.57 -0.10 12.38 27.19% 18.87% 82.17%
A- Tim Duncan 2482 4.27 -0.28 2.79 1.76 -1.20 23.07% 38.27% 73.98%
A- Tony Parker 2766 4.07 3.69 0.83 -0.45 13.29 27.76% 11.39% 82.35%
B+ Danny Green 13 3.42 1.16 0.99 1.27 4.17 27.85% 0.00% 100.00%
B+ George Hill 1970 2.70 2.11 1.17 -0.57 11.27 18.71% 16.00% 76.36%
C+ Matt Bonner 1410 0.77 2.22 -0.19 -1.27 18.45 12.05% 23.53% 64.66%
C+ Richard Jefferson 2607 0.37 0.60 0.27 -0.50 3.76 16.04% 18.27% 74.74%
C- DeJuan Blair 1709 -0.74 -2.81 0.20 1.88 -14.52 19.37% 42.80% 68.20%
D+ Gary Neal 1507 -1.36 0.19 -1.33 -0.22 0.95 20.36% 13.83% 84.07%
D Chris Quinn 231 -2.52 0.06 -1.94 -0.65 0.28 22.94% 8.33% 75.00%
D- Antonio McDyess 1273 -2.75 -2.31 -0.92 0.48 -16.09 14.39% 35.98% 69.31%
D- Tiago Splitter 603 -3.11 -0.25 -1.57 -1.29 -1.16 21.13% 33.71% 58.14%
F Ime Udoka 194 -4.00 -4.92 0.92 0.01 -34.40 14.31% 31.25% 75.00%
F James Anderson 204 -4.42 0.91 -3.31 -2.03 5.57 16.42% 0.00% 60.00%
F Garrett Temple 37 -9.66 -8.99 2.10 -2.76 -51.65 17.41% 25.00% 33.33%
F Bobby Simmons 27 -9.91 -6.63 3.27 -6.55 -63.45 10.44% 0.00% 0.00%
F Alonzo Gee 16 -34.91 -26.89 -9.95 1.93 -83.07 32.38% 33.33% 0.00%

A's and B's, kids. That's what it takes.

Why Mario Chalmers Supplanting Carlos Arroyo Doesn't Surprise Me

I haven't really been using ezPM for much more than making lists, but there's only so much of that one can stand before it gets a bit stale. Therefore, starting with this post, I'm going to make more of an effort to apply the model to analysis of specific teams, players, trades, etc.

Let's start with something rather small. Erik Spoelstra announced today that Mario Chalmers will replace Carlos Arroyo as the starting point guard for the Miami Heat.

"It was a tough decision," Spoelstra said. "It wasn't anything that Carlos was doing wrong. He was doing everything that I asked him to do. I think this is what's best for the team right now."

Was Carlos doing anything wrong? Since I just ran the numbers for the entire league yesterday to look at hot and cold players since Jan. 1, it was easy for me to compare Chalmers to Arroyo during the same period (neither showed up on the previous lists):

Arroyo v. Chalmers (since Jan. 1)

NAME TEAM POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
Mario Chalmers MIA 354 0.48 -0.65 1.33 -0.21 -3.77 17.21% 5.88% 82.61%
Carlos Arroyo MIA 346 -2.81 -1.52 -0.77 -0.52 -9.98 15.23% 13.33% 75.00%

Arroyo v. Chalmers (prior to Jan. 1)

NAME TEAM POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
Mario Chalmers MIA 871 2.48 0.11 2.85 -0.48 0.59 18.13% 8.51% 84.48%
Carlos Arroyo MIA 1363 0.07 1.17 -0.40 -0.70 8.15 14.35% 11.84% 83.61%

I think Spoelstra was being a little kind when he said Arroyo "wasn't doing anything wrong." Chalmers is ahead by almost 3.3 points, which is certainly significant. In fact, both players are down from their production from Oct-Dec, but Chalmers has clearly been more productive the entire season. So, to sum up, it's about time Spoelstra made the switch.

 

 

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

Who's been hot? Who's been not? Let's find out. Today, I'm looking at the 25 hottest and coldest players with at least 300 possessions since the new year began (just so there's no confusion, that's Jan. 1, 2011). As always, I'll highlight any Warriors on the lists.

Hot

Looks like Ryan Anderson is really benefiting from that ORL-PHX-WAS trade, eh? Hedo makes the list, too (#23). And in addition to the usual suspects (Nash, LeBron, Paul, Howard), some interesting names appear, including Iguodala, Ibaka, and Baron Davis. BARON DAVIS? Fear the beard, indeed. Blake Griffin is starting to dominate. And that's the way it looks here, too. And look who rolls in at #19. Stephen Curry, baby(face). And a large part of it is coming on the defensive end, presumably from steals. (I really need to get counterpart defense in the model, though, because anyone who watches the Warriors on a regular basis would probably find this curious, indeed.)

RANK NAME TEAM POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
1 Ryan Anderson ORL 318 10.28 6.42 2.62 1.24 31.96 20.08% 55.17% 61.11%
2 Steve Nash PHX 588 9.66 9.36 -0.13 0.44 34.68 26.98% 16.00% 89.19%
3 LeBron James MIA 510 9.22 5.67 2.91 0.64 13.87 40.91% 27.03% 79.37%
4 Chris Paul NOH 613 7.78 5.17 3.65 -1.04 20.08 25.74% 14.29% 68.42%
5 Dwight Howard ORL 465 7.63 1.45 1.75 4.43 4.84 29.96% 46.88% 80.28%
6 Serge Ibaka OKC 423 7.54 2.54 1.47 3.54 15.50 16.38% 53.23% 70.83%
7 Andre Iguodala PHI 310 7.51 3.39 3.14 0.98 17.09 19.81% 20.00% 85.71%
8 Ronnie Brewer CHI 439 6.41 -1.23 6.89 0.75 -8.22 14.98% 25.00% 92.86%
9 Ray Allen BOS 572 6.36 5.33 0.35 0.68 26.65 19.99% 28.57% 85.71%
10 Kevin Love MIN 588 6.25 3.20 0.54 2.51 12.69 25.20% 50.62% 70.25%
11 Derrick Rose CHI 616 6.22 3.71 1.91 0.60 10.03 36.98% 28.57% 80.56%
12 Jamal Crawford ATL 409 6.19 5.55 1.14 -0.50 19.15 28.99% 8.33% 84.21%
13 Zach Randolph MEM 764 5.98 0.65 0.39 4.94 2.31 28.18% 50.83% 76.79%
14 Blake Griffin LAC 512 5.82 1.62 -0.37 4.56 5.01 32.43% 45.90% 81.33%
15 Kobe Bryant LAL 675 5.77 4.45 -0.14 1.46 12.86 34.60% 29.27% 85.71%
16 Tim Duncan SAS 698 5.69 -0.37 2.97 3.09 -1.62 22.72% 45.61% 73.95%
17 Baron Davis LAC 412 5.68 4.68 0.81 0.19 17.61 26.59% 13.64% 76.92%
18 Lamar Odom LAL 588 5.66 2.63 2.56 0.47 12.15 21.68% 27.71% 75.51%
19 Stephen Curry GSW 497 5.46 3.26 2.51 -0.32 13.61 23.99% 15.00% 82.76%
20 Rajon Rondo BOS 589 5.32 -0.12 3.92 1.53 -0.56 21.85% 50.00% 84.38%
21 Paul Pierce BOS 560 5.26 6.54 0.26 -1.54 28.08 23.31% 11.43% 70.37%
22 Kevin Martin HOU 523 5.26 5.30 -0.30 0.26 15.16 34.97% 18.18% 86.36%
23 Hedo Turkoglu ORL 434 5.22 3.35 1.78 0.09 17.67 18.99% 20.00% 74.42%
24 Darren Collison IND 378 5.16 5.15 0.03 -0.02 18.18 28.33% 25.00% 77.78%
25 Joe Johnson ATL 454 5.15 5.27 0.57 -0.69 16.64 31.70% 12.20% 78.57%

Cold

Mo is less? Ok, jokes aside, it freaks me out to see David Lee on this list. I could swear he's been playing a lot better lately, since his elbow injury has been pretty much resolved. Well, there's still half of a season yet to be played. I'm still holding out hope that he turns it around on both ends of the court.

RANK NAME TEAM POSSESSIONS ezPM100 O100 D100 REB100 OEFF USG ORR DRR
203 Mo Williams CLE 366 -10.13 -5.20 -3.73 -1.19 -20.76 25.07% 4.76% 76.92%
202 Jeff Green OKC 496 -7.33 -3.49 -0.68 -3.16 -18.81 18.57% 17.39% 53.49%
201 Stephen Graham NJN 448 -6.97 -3.33 -3.04 -0.60 -29.03 11.46% 10.53% 85.37%
200 Charlie Villanueva DET 374 -6.87 -0.59 -2.42 -3.86 -3.31 17.86% 8.33% 62.00%
199 Andrea Bargnani TOR 697 -6.48 -1.74 -0.81 -3.92 -6.42 27.04% 17.81% 53.33%
198 Shawne Williams NYK 456 -5.91 -0.29 -0.76 -4.86 -1.99 14.78% 18.03% 48.21%
197 Brandon Rush IND 358 -5.41 -3.04 -1.78 -0.59 -19.95 15.26% 10.00% 84.00%
196 Linas Kleiza TOR 434 -5.40 -3.66 -1.03 -0.70 -21.58 16.98% 21.21% 74.19%
195 Jordan Hill HOU 411 -5.29 -2.97 -2.69 0.38 -18.00 16.51% 38.18% 61.22%
194 Paul Millsap UTA 479 -4.84 -0.29 -3.21 -1.34 -1.10 26.01% 24.59% 66.18%
193 Willie Green NOH 346 -4.50 -3.30 -0.76 -0.44 -18.38 17.98% 31.25% 68.18%
192 Courtney Lee HOU 381 -4.40 -3.80 -0.15 -0.46 -18.13 20.94% 21.88% 70.97%
191 John Salmons MIL 408 -3.99 -2.03 -1.59 -0.38 -8.34 24.32% 15.63% 82.61%
190 Michael Beasley MIN 432 -3.99 -2.25 -0.41 -1.32 -8.35 27.00% 21.62% 65.63%
189 David Lee GSW 473 -3.92 2.44 -3.12 -3.25 11.39 21.45% 24.56% 58.11%
188 Aaron Brooks HOU 344 -3.90 -1.11 -1.30 -1.49 -4.02 27.62% 0.00% 53.85%
187 Eugene Jeter SAC 303 -3.73 -1.47 -2.45 0.19 -7.64 19.29% 12.50% 90.91%
186 Samuel Dalembert SAC 337 -3.69 -0.95 -2.89 0.15 -6.11 15.51% 30.77% 68.18%
185 Sasha Vujacic NJN 517 -3.68 -2.22 -1.40 -0.06 -9.75 22.77% 18.18% 80.00%
184 Al Harrington DEN 399 -3.64 -0.46 -0.59 -2.59 -2.14 21.45% 15.56% 65.12%
183 Luis Scola HOU 685 -3.64 -2.03 -0.12 -1.48 -7.79 26.04% 18.28% 69.57%
182 Manny Harris CLE 516 -3.35 -1.37 -3.80 1.82 -7.51 18.28% 28.57% 91.89%
181 Carlos Boozer CHI 358 -3.25 2.04 -1.79 -3.50 6.98 29.27% 29.79% 56.79%
180 Wilson Chandler NYK 773 -3.19 -1.10 -0.33 -1.76 -5.82 18.92% 16.42% 67.16%
179 Andray Blatche WAS 626 -3.19 -3.74 1.50 -0.95 -16.27 22.98% 25.68% 66.25%