Is Jeremy Lin's Turnover Problem a Problem? Probably not.

Reblogged this on Linsanity and commented: Yea, Lin's nominal turnover figures look alarming, but this analysis suggests that it may not be a big deal at all.

Can't really compare what Melo and Amar'e did before Lin playing without a PG to what they will do with Lin running the floor. I've suspected that Lin's turnover problem is not nearly as bad as it seems, and not terribly reflective of his true ability. He is running D'Antoni's system which is very point guard-centric and inflates both their assists and turnovers. The thing is he has not been working with the perimeter shooters D'Antoni requires for his system to blossom. The Knicks are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the league at about 30%, and Lin in this stretch has been playing without Carmelo, who is a threat to hit from any range, Josh Harrellson who has shown 3pt ability at 35% this season and Toney Douglas/Baron Davis who are (or were) good 3pt shooters. The only consistent 3 point shooter during this run has been Steve Novak and you can't count on just one shooter day in and day out. Bill Walker and Landry Fields were black holes from range - in fact Lin himself was probably the most efficient 3pt shooter besides Novak during this time. Having "scouted" Lin somewhat in his performance this season I found that he is extremely efficient at finding open men behind the 3 point line, with 32 assists to 4 turnovers, but he should have a lot more assists on a healthy Knicks squad that will be welcoming J.R. Smith. Improving 3pt% will allow the team to spread the floor, making it easier for Jeremy to drive into the lane when necessary. As of now it is where he gets the bulk of his turnovers - over half of the time he's coughed the ball up, Jeremy has either mishandled it due to defensive pressure when trying to dribble to the hoop or he's made a poor pass in traffic to a big man in the lane, generally leaving his feet to do so and try to make the ill-advised acrobatic dime. The Knicks' defense is too one-dimensional as it stands now and since Lin is the man designated to operate it he is the one who pays in his personal statistics.

All I can say is that I watch every Knicks game. Every time Amare gets the ball in ISO and puts the ball on the floor he's a huge threat to get a TO. Melo's TOs are different, but he gets a lot of really stupid ones making plays for himself also. Since both these players will continue doing pretty much the same things on offense they have been doing even when Lin is on the court, IMO they will continue getting "close" to as many TOs as they get now. It's not like they get TOs trying to make passes to set other people up or to penetrate to makes plays for others like Lin does. If that was the case, their TOs would shrink because Lin would be doing that job. IMO unless Lin improves, the team total will rise. The question I have is by how much. There will be some tradeoff just because Lin handles the ball more, but it's not going to be 1 for 1 when you have Amare and Melo

Amare and Melo both turn the ball over a lot relative to the guys that have been playing in their place. Lin's TOs will probably go down when both are playing because he'll handle the ball less often, but they may not go down as much as Amare and Melo go up relative to without them.

I'm not sure I trust this yet. One of the reasons the rest of the team's TOs are not up is that the two biggest culprits on the Knicks (Amare and Melo) have been out. When the Knicks have Amare, Melo, and Lin on the court, some of the TOs previously committed by those other guys may shift to Lin because he'll be handling the ball so much, but I suspect the overall TOs will be up unless Lin does a better job.

I think you'd have to agree that the 'average' estimate is a low bound on his current turnovers, though. The 5.1 TO per 36 is over double his rate from last season when he was getting garbage time, and his TO% is up as well. He's had at least six turnovers in every game he's started except for against the Wizards. Now, he obviously brings enough to the table that it isn't anything to sweat too much, but it's certainly a weak point.