Rookie Update: PSAMS Ratings

Posted on January 31, 2012 | 13 Comments

I wanted to take a quick look at rookie scoring through my PSAMS metric. There are 18 rookies with at least 500 possessions, which was my cutoff. Unfortunately,  I only have the first 510 possessions for MarShon Brooks, because there have been issues with the matchup files that I use the past several weeks. I contacted Aaron B. who runs basketball-value.com and is the source of all the play-by-play data that I use, and he explained that all the lineups containing Shawne and Shelden Williams in NJN are wreaking havoc. He has to go in manually and do the matchup files for those games, and it's going to take him a while to fix them all. So, for now, Brooks is at the top. I expect he's probably still somewhere up there, but just keep in mind, the data for him are limited to what he did the first few weeks of the season.

Ok, with all that said, here are the results.

RK NAME TEAM POS POSS GS PSAMS MOD INS MID 3PT FT
1  MarShon Brooks NJN 2.75 510 4 4.82 2.62 0.74 2.47 1.06 0.55
2  Kyrie Irving CLE 1.00 980 18 4.46 2.47 0.53 2.10 1.08 0.75
3  Jon Leuer MIL 3.97 587 6 2.73 1.47 0.32 2.12 0.11 0.17
4  Klay Thompson GSW 2.95 592 1 1.56 1.21 -0.63 0.60 2.98 -1.38
5  Markieff Morris PHX 4.08 740 4 -0.04 0.37 -1.06 -0.54 2.12 -0.56
6  Brandon Knight DET 1.13 1304 16 -0.98 -0.41 -0.41 -0.73 0.79 -0.63
7  Ricky Rubio MIN 1.00 1418 11 -1.11 -0.45 -0.67 -0.95 0.12 0.38
8  Kawhi Leonard SAS 2.66 999 12 -1.57 -1.01 0.24 0.10 -0.70 -1.21
9  Jimmer Fredette SAC 1.28 921 5 -1.57 -0.66 -0.68 -1.37 1.13 -0.65
10  Norris Cole MIA 1.00 762 1 -1.59 -0.73 -1.05 1.03 -1.01 -0.56
11  Josh Harrellson NYK 4.51 586 3 -2.30 -1.01 -1.01 -1.26 0.99 -1.02
12  Kemba Walker CHA 1.00 1026 8 -2.43 -1.10 -1.11 -1.45 0.05 0.09
13  Derrick Williams MIN 3.35 784 2 -2.47 -1.73 1.13 -2.25 -0.97 -0.38
14  Isaiah Thomas SAC 1.00 604 0 -2.95 -1.26 -1.87 -1.30 -0.89 1.12
15  Iman Shumpert NYK 1.45 918 14 -3.01 -1.76 0.08 -2.02 -0.69 -0.37
16  Tristan Thompson CLE 4.05 549 0 -3.14 -1.68 -0.51 -0.79 -0.08 -1.77
17  Chris Singleton WAS 3.03 770 9 -3.85 -2.25 0.07 -1.79 -0.65 -1.48
18  Chandler Parsons HOU 3.20 937 14 -4.80 -2.82 0.06 -2.13 -1.04 -1.69

Remember, this is just a scoring metric, taking into account inside, mid-range, 3-pt, and foul shooting. For Warriors fans, it's nice to see Klay Thompson coming around after a very slow start. He has some issues with turnovers and rebounds to work through, but his 3-pt shooting has been incredible. As you can see, he leads all rookies in that component, and by a wide margin. Irving is providing incredibly balanced scoring. Last I checked, he was one of only a handful (actually less than that) of players in the NBA that had positive ratings in each of the four components. That's impressive. It should be noted that only 4 out of the 18 rookies are above water, with Markieff just slightly below average.

In terms of the individual leaders in each component, Derrick Williams is leading in inside scoring (1.13), Brooks (small sample), Leuer, and Irving are all right up at the top in mid-range scoring, Klay is leading the 3-pt shooting as stated already, and little Isaiah Thomas is doing the best getting to the line and converting free throw attempts.

Here are the categories broken down into more detail (rates and %'s):

RK NAME TEAM INSR INS% MIDR MID% 3PTR 3PT% FTR FT% AND1R
1  MarShon Brooks NJN 4.51 73.91% 14.31 43.84% 6.08 38.71% 6.27 78.13% 0.20
2  Kyrie Irving CLE 9.08 59.55% 9.59 47.87% 5.00 40.82% 6.22 81.97% 0.31
3  Jon Leuer MIL 6.13 66.67% 9.03 49.06% 0.85 40.00% 2.39 85.71% 0.68
4  Klay Thompson GSW 2.03 66.67% 7.77 39.13% 8.78 44.23% 0.34 100.00% 0.00
5  Markieff Morris PHX 3.51 57.69% 7.84 36.21% 5.14 47.37% 2.16 68.75% 0.41
6  Brandon Knight DET 5.06 56.06% 7.75 33.66% 6.75 37.50% 2.91 78.95% 0.15
7  Ricky Rubio MIN 3.39 54.17% 7.62 32.41% 3.39 35.42% 5.71 82.72% 0.07
8  Kawhi Leonard SAS 5.51 65.45% 7.31 36.99% 2.70 25.93% 2.20 54.55% 0.20
9  Jimmer Fredette SAC 2.17 55.00% 7.71 29.58% 8.58 37.97% 2.61 87.50% 0.00
10  Norris Cole MIA 8.53 50.77% 9.45 43.06% 3.28 24.00% 3.41 69.23% 0.39
11  Josh Harrellson NYK 3.07 61.11% 2.56 33.33% 7.68 35.56% 1.19 57.14% 0.00
12  Kemba Walker CHA 4.78 48.98% 11.89 34.43% 6.34 33.85% 5.07 76.92% 0.29
13  Derrick Williams MIN 7.53 67.80% 5.23 21.95% 4.85 26.32% 6.63 61.54% 0.26
14  Isaiah Thomas SAC 5.46 42.42% 4.80 34.48% 8.28 30.00% 6.62 85.00% 0.33
15  Iman Shumpert NYK 4.58 61.90% 9.48 28.74% 5.23 29.17% 2.94 81.48% 0.33
16  Tristan Thompson CLE 11.66 56.25% 8.74 33.33% 0.00 0.00% 8.01 36.36% 0.55
17  Chris Singleton WAS 3.25 72.00% 3.38 30.77% 4.16 28.13% 0.65 60.00% 0.00
18  Chandler Parsons HOU 7.36 60.87% 3.31 25.81% 4.59 25.58% 1.17 27.27% 0.11

And if you really want to dig down, here are the totals (of course, these are all given on the PSAMS page, too):

Here, "M" = made and "X" = missed.

RK NAME TEAM DKM DKX LYM LYX TIPM TIPX HKM HKX MIDM MIDX FG3M MISS3 FTA FTM AND1
1  MarShon Brooks NJN 2 0 15 6 0 0 0 0 32 41 12 19 32 25 1
2  Kyrie Irving CLE 1 0 52 33 0 2 0 1 45 49 20 29 61 50 3
3  Jon Leuer MIL 8 0 13 6 1 2 2 4 26 27 2 3 14 12 4
4  Klay Thompson GSW 1 0 5 4 2 0 0 0 18 28 23 29 2 2 0
5  Markieff Morris PHX 6 1 7 8 1 2 1 0 21 37 18 20 16 11 3
6  Brandon Knight DET 0 0 36 28 1 0 0 1 34 67 33 55 38 30 2
7  Ricky Rubio MIN 0 1 26 20 0 1 0 0 35 73 17 31 81 67 1
8  Kawhi Leonard SAS 8 3 28 14 0 1 0 1 27 46 7 20 22 12 2
9  Jimmer Fredette SAC 0 0 11 8 0 0 0 1 21 50 30 49 24 21 0
10  Norris Cole MIA 0 0 33 30 0 1 0 1 31 41 6 19 26 18 3
11  Josh Harrellson NYK 1 0 8 5 0 1 2 1 5 10 16 29 7 4 0
12  Kemba Walker CHA 0 0 22 25 1 0 1 0 42 80 22 43 52 40 3
13  Derrick Williams MIN 12 1 27 17 1 1 0 0 9 32 10 28 52 32 2
14  Isaiah Thomas SAC 0 1 14 18 0 0 0 0 10 19 15 35 40 34 2
15  Iman Shumpert NYK 8 3 16 12 1 1 1 0 25 62 14 34 27 22 3
16  Tristan Thompson CLE 18 4 12 15 0 3 6 6 16 32 0 0 44 16 3
17  Chris Singleton WAS 7 0 10 7 0 0 1 0 8 18 9 23 5 3 0
18  Chandler Parsons HOU 14 3 25 20 3 3 0 1 8 23 11 32 11 3 1
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If you can automate the process enough to run it on multiple players for multiple seasons you should be able to make some conclusive statements.

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With Hamilton: 46 mid-range shots/100 poss Without Hamilton: 43.6 per 100 Hamilton shoots 17 mid-range shots per 100 which is the 2nd most in the league. The most (among starters) is Kobe who shoots ~23 mid-range per 100. His results are different. With Kobe: 47.7 mid-range per 100 Without Kobe: 38 One caveat with Kobe is that there are only 330 possessions with him off. Whereas there are 1400 w/o Rip. Another interesting thing about Kobe's on/off. When he is on, LA averages 16 3-pt shots at a very low 40% eFG%. When he's off they average 25 3-pt shots at 47%. When Kobe is in the game, their mid-range % is 41%, actually better than their effective 3-pt %. That's likely very unusual, and perhaps, explains why he is taking so many of those shots. It should also be noted when Kobe is off, the inside rate actually goes down from 24.7 to 20.9, so he's probably not taking away too many of those shots (although he's mostly on with Gasol/Bynum, so it's tough to judge). One last thing with Kobe. When he's on, LA averages 25 FTA, when he's off, only 18.

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David West, Paul Millsap, Glen Davis, Chris Kaman, Luis Scola, Al Horford These suggestions are players with decent minutes and at least 2/3 of their shots midrange.

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One way to do it that would not need game-by-game data is to compare % of midrange shots by player by year, and note the rest of the team's distribution as well. Then compare to another year. If rest of team shoots proportionally more jumpers in another year, does that player shoot less, more, or about the same? You'd probably want to confine it to players with several years experience in the league and a reasonable number of shots per year. I'm sure there are ways that aren't as labor intensive; this is just one that could be done using hoopdata stats.

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I'm actually trying to look at specific lineups, and see how shot rates change. I may find something interesting that way. Any suggestions for particular players you think are overshooting suspects?

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One example. With and without Nick Young... With Nick Young Midrange shots per 100: 43.40 (31.62%) W/O Nick Young Midrange shots per 100: 43.35 (28.57%) Just one example, of course. Need to do more.

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I'm also not sure that Young in particular will tell you much, since Jordan Crawford's shooting profile last year looks pretty similar to Young's.

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Maybe there's a reason for that...

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If you're suggesting that players on the same team/same position usually have similar shooting profiles, I don't think that's generally the case. Just at SG look at Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez, Demar Derozan/Leandro Barbosa, DWade vs Mike Miller, etc.

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Sure, they don't always take the same shots. But Washington is a terrible team, so it's not surprising to me that their shooting guards have to take a lot of bad shots. Also, the question really is how much things change at the team level. If a player is truly taking too many (bad) shots, then when he comes out, those shots shouldn't be there. Maybe it's an accident that taking out Young doesn't change the shot distribution at all, but it seems rather unlikely to me. Just my opinion at this point. I need to back it up with more data.

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I still think you're way too generous to volume midrange shooters. The way to settle it for me would be to look at how a team's shot selection changes with and without a high-volume midrange shooter in the lineup, maybe due to injuries or trades? If everyone else on the team ends up taking more jumpers then your stats probably work, but if, as I suspect, the distribution of the other players is little affected, then you should go back to model I rather than the average of model I and II.

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Fred, great suggestion, and it's actually something I've been meaning to do for a while when I get the time. One of my long-term goals is really to turn this into an "adjusted" version of PSAMS, which would address those issues. I'm just not sure yet how to construct it.

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