# Position- and Shot-Location Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part III): 3-pt Shooting

Mike Bibby shoots 3's. Doesn't do much of anything else, but he can knock down the trey with quite some regularity.

In the first two parts of this series I develop a new scoring metric (PSAMS) and applied it to inside shooting and mid-range shooting. If you haven't read those articles already, now would be a good time, since they define the underlying logic. In this post I will use PSAMS to estimate the value of 3-pt shooting. SPOILER: If you're expecting Stephen Curry to rate very highly, you won't be disappointed.

With a league average of about 54% — in terms of effective field goal percentage (eFG%) — 3-pt shots are not as efficient as inside shots (63%), but much more efficient than mid-range shot types (39%). As we'll see, however, some shooters create as much or more value on 3-pt shots as big men create on inside shots (or as Dirk creates on mid-range shots!).

The equation for evaluating 3-pt shooters is similar to the one for inside shooting. (Oh, before moving on, I should note here that I have switched over to using my play-by-play data, instead of Hoopdata, to compile these stats. One of the advantages of this (besides being easier for me) is that I can normalize all rates to 100 possessions, rather than the 40 minutes that Hoopdata uses. This accounts for differences in pace between teams, which although not hugely significant, can certainly make some differences in the player rankings.) Let's use Curry as an example of someone who takes more than the average number of 3-pt shots for a PG:

$PSAMS_{3pt}=2*5*(0.662-0.528)+2*(6.9-5.0)*(0.662-0.498)=1.96$

The first term represents the marginal value that Curry creates on 3-pt shots compared to the average PG who takes 5 3-pt shots per 100 possessions. The second term represents the "extra" value that Curry creates on his 3-pt shots compared to the league average shot efficiency. (You might be wondering why I multiply by 2, instead of 3. That is because I have already accounted for the value of the 3-pt shot by using the eFG%.)

Now let's look at a point guard who takes fewer than the average number of 3-pt shots at that position. Someone like Derek Fisher:

$PSAMS_{3pt}=2*3.7*(0.589-0.528)+2*(5.0-3.7)*(0.498-0.528)=0.37$

As before, the first term represents the marginal value of Fisher's shots compared to the average PG. This term is positive for Fisher. The second term, however, is negative because it represents Fisher's "undershooting" compared to the average rate of 3-pt shooting for point guards. The assumption here is that each 3-pt shot he passes up is instead taken by someone else and becomes just an average shot. It's not a huge penalty though, for example, compared to undershooting on inside shots. Still, because Fisher isn't nearly as efficient as Curry, his rating ends up being quite a bit lower.

With the math out of the way, let's crunch the numbers and take a look at the ratings.

## Top 25 3-pt Shooters (Starters)

The rating for Mike Bibby only accounts for his stint with Atlanta. It's interesting to note that Bibby's rating with Miami was similar at 2.65, suggesting the metric is fairly reliable.

Golden State has two of the top 25 3-pt shooters in Curry (#3) and Wright (#23).

 RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 1 Mike Bibby ATL PG 2.41 8.3 66.2% 2 Chauncey Billups DEN PG 2.06 7.4 65.9% 3 Stephen Curry GSW PG 1.96 6.9 66.2% 4 Ray Allen BOS SG 1.72 7.0 66.7% 5 Richard Jefferson SAS SF 1.64 6.5 65.7% 6 Marco Belinelli NOH SG 1.56 8.9 62.2% 7 Anthony Morrow NJN SG 1.47 7.6 63.7% 8 Channing Frye PHX PF 1.32 9.0 58.4% 9 Wes Matthews POR SG 1.25 7.4 61.1% 10 Jameer Nelson ORL PG 1.17 6.9 60.5% 11 Mike Dunleavy IND SF 1.14 7.6 60.2% 12 Luke Ridnour MIN PG 1.09 4.3 66.0% 13 Jodie Meeks PHI SG 1.08 8.8 59.6% 14 DeShawn Stevenson DAL SG 0.90 11.4 56.6% 15 Hedo Turkoglu ORL SF 0.88 5.9 60.9% 16 Arron Afflalo DEN SG 0.86 5.4 63.5% 17 Kevin Love MIN PF 0.82 4.0 62.6% 18 Ben Gordon DET SG 0.78 6.7 60.3% 19 Danny Granger IND SF 0.77 7.5 57.9% 20 Jason Richardson ORL SG 0.75 9.3 57.3% 21 Kevin Martin HOU SG 0.73 8.9 57.5% 22 Shane Battier HOU SF 0.69 6.3 58.7% 23 Dorell Wright GSW SF 0.65 8.3 56.4% 24 Kyle Lowry HOU PG 0.60 6.8 56.4% 25 Nick Young WAS SG 0.59 6.8 58.9%

For those of you wondering where Kyle Korver and Matt Bonner are...

## Top 10 3-pt Shooters (Non-Starters)

Reggie Williams comes in at #6 and Vladimir Radmanovic also shines according to this metric.

 RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 1 Matt Bonner SAS PF 2.84 2 James Jones MIA SF 2.41 3 Ryan Anderson ORL PF 2.01 4 Kyle Korver CHI SF 2.00 5 Gary Neal SAS SG 1.84 6 Reggie Williams GSW SG 1.47 7 Charlie Villanueva DET PF 1.45 8 Vladimir Radmanovic GSW PF 1.44 9 Martell Webster MIN SF 1.12 10 Jared Dudley PHX SF 1.11

Of course, I know you all want to see the bottom-dwellers, too.

## Bottom 25 3-pt Shooters (Starters)

No Warriors on this list. Phew.

 RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 161 Joe Johnson ATL SG -1.31 6.4 44.5% 160 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG -1.31 0.9 14.4% 159 Gerald Henderson CHA SG -1.10 1.2 29.2% 158 Tyreke Evans SAC SG -1.07 3.6 43.6% 157 Thabo Sefolosha OKC SG -1.07 2.6 41.2% 156 Tony Allen MEM SG -1.00 0.8 26.1% 155 Baron Davis LAC PG -0.98 6.2 44.4% 154 Sonny Weems TOR SG -0.97 2.2 41.8% 153 Travis Outlaw NJN SF -0.94 5.8 45.4% 152 Dwyane Wade MIA SG -0.93 3.8 45.9% 151 Trevor Ariza NOH SF -0.90 5.6 45.6% 150 Eric Bledsoe LAC PG -0.85 3.3 41.4% 149 Kobe Bryant LAL SG -0.82 6.8 48.4% 148 Shawn Marion DAL SF -0.80 0.8 23.4% 147 Andre Miller POR PG -0.80 0.8 16.2% 146 Randy Foye LAC SG -0.74 7.3 49.1% 145 Jeff Green OKC PF -0.66 5.3 45.7% 144 Ersan Ilyasova MIL PF -0.65 4.3 44.6% 143 Devin Harris NJN PG -0.62 3.4 45.0% 142 Brandon Roy POR SG -0.61 4.8 50.0% 141 Rodney Stuckey DET PG -0.58 2.3 43.3% 140 John Wall WAS PG -0.56 2.3 43.8% 139 Zach Randolph MEM PF -0.56 0.8 27.9% 138 Rajon Rondo BOS PG -0.55 0.9 34.9% 137 Tracy McGrady DET SG -0.54 2.9 51.1%

## Bottom 10 3-pt Shooters (Non-Starters)

I'm surprised to see Rudy Fernandez on this list, but his efficiency is really low for someone who takes that many shots.

 RANK NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 67 Corey Brewer MIN SG -1.37 3.6 39.4% 66 Donte Greene SAC SF -1.22 6.9 44.1% 65 Paul George IND SG -1.21 5.5 44.6% 64 Rudy Fernandez POR SG -0.99 10.7 48.2% 63 Ronnie Brewer CHI SG -0.85 0.8 34.6% 62 Evan Turner PHI SG -0.73 1.3 45.3% 61 Al-Farouq Aminu LAC SF -0.69 5.1 47.2% 60 C.J. Miles UTA SG -0.68 9.1 48.5% 59 Chase Budinger HOU SF -0.61 8.0 48.7% 58 Leandro Barbosa TOR SG -0.57 7.8 50.2%

Here is the breakdown by position (starters and non-starters combined).

## PG

 OR PR NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 2 1 Mike Bibby ATL PG 2.41 8.3 66.2% 4 2 Chauncey Billups DEN PG 2.06 7.4 65.9% 7 3 Stephen Curry GSW PG 1.96 6.9 66.2% 18 4 Jameer Nelson ORL PG 1.17 6.9 60.5% 23 5 Luke Ridnour MIN PG 1.09 4.3 66.0% 30 6 Toney Douglas NYK PG 0.88 9.8 55.9% 42 7 Kyle Lowry HOU PG 0.60 6.8 56.4% 44 8 Steve Blake LAL PG 0.58 6.6 56.5% 46 9 Ty Lawson DEN PG 0.57 4.0 60.5% 47 10 Steve Nash PHX PG 0.54 4.2 59.9% 53 11 Jordan Farmar NJN PG 0.41 9.1 53.8% 54 12 Eric Maynor OKC PG 0.39 4.3 57.8% 55 13 George Hill SAS PG 0.38 5.0 56.6% 56 14 Derek Fisher LAL PG 0.37 3.7 58.9% 58 15 Mario Chalmers MIA PG 0.32 7.7 53.9% 63 16 Chris Paul NOH PG 0.27 3.5 57.9% 71 17 Mike Conley MEM PG 0.14 4.0 55.3% 72 18 Jrue Holiday PHI PG 0.12 4.0 55.0% 76 19 Jose Calderon TOR PG 0.08 3.8 54.8% 80 20 Louis Williams PHI PG 0.05 7.6 52.2% 97 21 Jose Barea DAL PG 0.01 6.0 52.4% 103 22 Keyon Dooling MIL PG -0.00 7.2 51.9% 104 23 Jerryd Bayless TOR PG -0.00 5.2 52.7% 112 24 Beno Udrih SAC PG -0.02 3.4 53.9% 117 25 Deron Williams UTA PG -0.04 6.8 51.8% 125 26 Jason Kidd DAL PG -0.12 7.7 51.0% 130 27 Tony Parker SAS PG -0.16 1.4 54.3% 131 28 Jarrett Jack NOH PG -0.16 3.4 51.8% 161 29 D.J. Augustin CHA PG -0.28 6.5 50.0% 162 30 Derrick Rose CHI PG -0.28 6.7 50.0% 165 31 Russell Westbrook OKC PG -0.30 1.9 49.5% 166 32 Darren Collison IND PG -0.30 2.6 49.6% 168 33 Raymond Felton NYK PG -0.30 6.4 49.8% 172 34 Shaun Livingston CHA PG -0.32 0.2 37.5% 180 35 Will Bynum DET PG -0.38 2.4 48.0% 183 36 Earl Watson UTA PG -0.38 3.7 48.6% 188 37 Ramon Sessions CLE PG -0.42 0.4 30.0% 192 38 Brandon Jennings MIL PG -0.50 7.5 48.5% 195 39 Rajon Rondo BOS PG -0.55 0.9 34.9% 197 40 John Wall WAS PG -0.56 2.3 43.8% 199 41 Rodney Stuckey DET PG -0.58 2.3 43.3% 202 42 Devin Harris NJN PG -0.62 3.4 45.0% 209 43 Andre Miller POR PG -0.80 0.8 16.2% 212 44 Eric Bledsoe LAC PG -0.85 3.3 41.4% 218 45 Baron Davis LAC PG -0.98 6.2 44.4%

## SG

 OR PR NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 8 1 Gary Neal SAS SG 1.84 9.5 62.8% 9 2 Ray Allen BOS SG 1.72 7.0 66.7% 11 3 Marco Belinelli NOH SG 1.56 8.9 62.2% 12 4 Reggie Williams GSW SG 1.47 7.6 63.8% 13 5 Anthony Morrow NJN SG 1.47 7.6 63.7% 17 6 Wes Matthews POR SG 1.25 7.4 61.1% 22 7 Daniel Gibson CLE SG 1.09 8.1 60.4% 24 8 Jodie Meeks PHI SG 1.08 8.8 59.6% 25 9 Brandon Rush IND SG 1.03 6.5 62.6% 27 10 DeShawn Stevenson DAL SG 0.90 11.4 56.6% 31 11 Arron Afflalo DEN SG 0.86 5.4 63.5% 32 12 J.J. Redick ORL SG 0.83 7.6 59.4% 34 13 Ben Gordon DET SG 0.78 6.7 60.3% 37 14 Jason Richardson ORL SG 0.75 9.3 57.3% 38 15 J.R. Smith DEN SG 0.74 8.1 58.5% 39 16 Kevin Martin HOU SG 0.73 8.9 57.5% 43 17 Nick Young WAS SG 0.59 6.8 58.9% 45 18 Courtney Lee HOU SG 0.57 5.3 61.2% 50 19 Carlos Delfino MIL SG 0.44 9.6 55.5% 51 20 Keith Bogans CHI SG 0.44 8.5 56.2% 57 21 Wayne Ellington MIN SG 0.36 5.1 59.5% 59 22 Sasha Vujacic NJN SG 0.30 8.6 55.3% 61 23 Vince Carter PHX SG 0.28 9.0 54.9% 68 24 Landry Fields NYK SG 0.19 4.4 59.2% 69 25 Anthony Parker CLE SG 0.16 5.6 56.8% 70 26 Richard Hamilton DET SG 0.16 5.2 57.3% 73 27 O.J. Mayo MEM SG 0.12 7.3 55.0% 79 28 Eric Gordon LAC SG 0.06 7.2 54.6% 100 29 Jason Terry DAL SG 0.01 7.2 54.3% 105 30 Kirk Hinrich WAS SG -0.00 4.0 57.6% 127 31 Wesley Johnson MIN SG -0.13 6.9 53.5% 128 32 Monta Ellis GSW SG -0.14 6.0 54.0% 133 33 Manu Ginobili SAS SG -0.16 9.3 52.4% 143 34 Shannon Brown LAL SG -0.20 7.2 52.9% 146 35 James Harden OKC SG -0.22 7.8 52.5% 148 36 Raja Bell UTA SG -0.23 4.8 54.0% 182 37 Willie Green NOH SG -0.38 5.0 52.3% 187 38 Jamal Crawford ATL SG -0.42 8.1 51.1% 193 39 Stephen Jackson CHA SG -0.52 8.0 50.6% 194 40 Tracy McGrady DET SG -0.54 2.9 51.1% 198 41 Leandro Barbosa TOR SG -0.57 7.8 50.2% 200 42 Brandon Roy POR SG -0.61 4.8 50.0% 205 43 C.J. Miles UTA SG -0.68 9.1 48.5% 207 44 Evan Turner PHI SG -0.73 1.3 45.3% 208 45 Randy Foye LAC SG -0.74 7.3 49.1% 211 46 Kobe Bryant LAL SG -0.82 6.8 48.4% 213 47 Ronnie Brewer CHI SG -0.85 0.8 34.6% 215 48 Dwyane Wade MIA SG -0.93 3.8 45.9% 217 49 Sonny Weems TOR SG -0.97 2.2 41.8% 219 50 Rudy Fernandez POR SG -0.99 10.7 48.2% 220 51 Tony Allen MEM SG -1.00 0.8 26.1% 221 52 Thabo Sefolosha OKC SG -1.07 2.6 41.2% 222 53 Tyreke Evans SAC SG -1.07 3.6 43.6% 223 54 Gerald Henderson CHA SG -1.10 1.2 29.2% 224 55 Paul George IND SG -1.21 5.5 44.6% 226 56 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG -1.31 0.9 14.4% 227 57 Joe Johnson ATL SG -1.31 6.4 44.5% 228 58 Corey Brewer MIN SG -1.37 3.6 39.4%

## SF

 OR PR NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 3 1 James Jones MIA SF 2.41 9.8 64.3% 6 2 Kyle Korver CHI SF 2.00 9.3 62.9% 10 3 Richard Jefferson SAS SF 1.64 6.5 65.7% 19 4 Mike Dunleavy IND SF 1.14 7.6 60.2% 20 5 Martell Webster MIN SF 1.12 6.1 62.5% 21 6 Jared Dudley PHX SF 1.11 6.2 62.3% 26 7 Gordon Hayward UTA SF 1.01 3.2 71.9% 28 8 Austin Daye DET SF 0.89 6.4 60.2% 29 9 Hedo Turkoglu ORL SF 0.88 5.9 60.9% 36 10 Danny Granger IND SF 0.77 7.5 57.9% 40 11 Shane Battier HOU SF 0.69 6.3 58.7% 41 12 Dorell Wright GSW SF 0.65 8.3 56.4% 49 13 Omri Casspi SAC SF 0.45 7.2 55.9% 60 14 Paul Pierce BOS SF 0.29 5.7 56.1% 64 15 Rudy Gay MEM SF 0.26 3.5 59.4% 65 16 John Salmons MIL SF 0.23 4.6 56.8% 66 17 Francisco Garcia SAC SF 0.21 8.1 53.8% 74 18 Danilo Gallinari NYK SF 0.12 7.4 52.1% 81 19 Grant Hill PHX SF 0.04 2.4 59.2% 114 20 Ron Artest LAL SF -0.03 5.1 53.7% 119 21 Wilson Chandler NYK SF -0.05 7.0 52.5% 122 22 Michael Beasley MIN SF -0.07 3.5 54.9% 129 23 Nicolas Batum POR SF -0.15 7.4 51.8% 132 24 Andrei Kirilenko UTA SF -0.16 2.6 54.7% 135 25 Luol Deng CHI SF -0.17 5.5 52.1% 136 26 Corey Maggette MIL SF -0.18 3.0 53.8% 142 27 Kevin Durant OKC SF -0.20 7.0 51.5% 160 28 Ryan Gomes LAC SF -0.28 5.3 51.2% 171 29 Tayshaun Prince DET SF -0.32 2.1 52.0% 176 30 Andre Iguodala PHI SF -0.36 3.9 50.6% 177 31 Sam Young MEM SF -0.37 1.7 51.0% 179 32 Marvin Williams ATL SF -0.38 3.2 50.5% 185 33 Carmelo Anthony DEN SF -0.40 3.6 50.0% 189 34 Gerald Wallace CHA SF -0.43 3.0 49.5% 190 35 LeBron James MIA SF -0.46 4.8 49.5% 201 36 Chase Budinger HOU SF -0.61 8.0 48.7% 206 37 Al-Farouq Aminu LAC SF -0.69 5.1 47.2% 210 38 Shawn Marion DAL SF -0.80 0.8 23.4% 214 39 Trevor Ariza NOH SF -0.90 5.6 45.6% 216 40 Travis Outlaw NJN SF -0.94 5.8 45.4% 225 41 Donte Greene SAC SF -1.22 6.9 44.1%

## PF

 OR PR NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 1 1 Matt Bonner SAS PF 2.84 8.4 68.1% 5 2 Ryan Anderson ORL PF 2.01 12.5 58.8% 14 3 Charlie Villanueva DET PF 1.45 10.3 57.9% 15 4 Vladimir Radmanovic GSW PF 1.44 7.6 60.7% 16 5 Channing Frye PHX PF 1.32 9.0 58.4% 33 6 Kevin Love MIN PF 0.82 4.0 62.6% 35 7 Anthony Tolliver MIN PF 0.77 4.3 61.3% 48 8 Al Harrington DEN PF 0.50 9.8 53.5% 52 9 Dirk Nowitzki DAL PF 0.43 3.5 58.9% 62 10 Lamar Odom LAL PF 0.28 3.6 56.6% 75 11 Josh McRoberts IND PF 0.09 1.9 57.5% 94 12 Antawn Jamison CLE PF 0.03 7.3 51.5% 115 13 Boris Diaw CHA PF -0.04 4.4 51.8% 123 14 Amare Stoudemire NYK PF -0.08 0.4 62.5% 126 15 Paul Millsap UTA PF -0.13 0.5 56.3% 137 16 Ed Davis TOR PF -0.19 0.0 0.0% 138 17 Kurt Thomas CHI PF -0.19 0.0 0.0% 139 18 Serge Ibaka OKC PF -0.19 0.0 0.0% 140 19 Carlos Boozer CHI PF -0.19 0.0 0.0% 141 20 David Lee GSW PF -0.19 0.1 50.0% 144 21 Elton Brand PHI PF -0.21 0.0 0.0% 145 22 Josh Smith ATL PF -0.21 3.1 49.7% 147 23 Kris Humphries NJN PF -0.22 0.0 0.0% 149 24 Antonio McDyess SAS PF -0.23 0.0 0.0% 150 25 Amir Johnson TOR PF -0.24 0.0 0.0% 151 26 Kevin Garnett BOS PF -0.24 0.1 30.0% 152 27 Blake Griffin LAC PF -0.24 0.4 43.8% 153 28 Brandon Bass ORL PF -0.25 0.1 0.0% 154 29 DeJuan Blair SAS PF -0.25 0.1 0.0% 155 30 Luis Scola HOU PF -0.25 0.1 0.0% 156 31 Tyler Hansbrough IND PF -0.26 0.1 0.0% 157 32 David West NOH PF -0.26 0.2 33.3% 159 33 Jason Thompson SAC PF -0.28 0.1 0.0% 163 34 Jordan Hill HOU PF -0.28 0.1 0.0% 164 35 Thaddeus Young PHI PF -0.29 0.5 40.9% 167 36 Carl Landry SAC PF -0.30 0.1 0.0% 169 37 J.J. Hickson CLE PF -0.31 0.1 0.0% 170 38 Kenyon Martin DEN PF -0.31 0.4 33.3% 173 39 Chris Bosh MIA PF -0.32 0.5 36.0% 174 40 Andray Blatche WAS PF -0.33 0.4 33.3% 175 41 Taj Gibson CHI PF -0.35 0.3 18.8% 178 42 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL PF -0.37 0.2 0.0% 181 43 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF -0.38 0.4 26.1% 184 44 Darrell Arthur MEM PF -0.39 0.2 0.0% 186 45 Glen Davis BOS PF -0.40 0.4 20.0% 191 46 Hakim Warrick PHX PF -0.48 0.4 13.6% 196 47 Zach Randolph MEM PF -0.56 0.8 27.9% 203 48 Ersan Ilyasova MIL PF -0.65 4.3 44.6% 204 49 Jeff Green OKC PF -0.66 5.3 45.7%

## Note that even though Bargnani is the highest rated center, he isn't adding that much value on these shots.

 OR PR NAME TEAM POS PSAMS 3PTA eFG% 67 1 Andrea Bargnani TOR C 0.21 4.9 51.8% 77 2 Marc Gasol MEM C 0.07 0.1 64.3% 78 3 Al Horford ATL C 0.07 0.1 75.0% 82 4 Nick Collison OKC C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 83 5 Al Jefferson UTA C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 84 6 Andris Biedrins GSW C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 85 7 Joel Anthony MIA C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 86 8 Tyson Chandler DAL C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 87 9 Darko Milicic MIN C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 88 10 Ryan Hollins CLE C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 89 11 Ronny Turiaf NYK C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 90 12 Zaza Pachulia ATL C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 91 13 Andrew Bynum LAL C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 92 14 Kwame Brown CHA C 0.03 0.0 0.0% 93 15 Pau Gasol LAL C 0.03 0.1 50.0% 95 16 Brook Lopez NJN C 0.01 0.0 0.0% 96 17 Emeka Okafor NOH C 0.01 0.0 0.0% 98 18 Greg Monroe DET C 0.01 0.0 0.0% 99 19 DeAndre Jordan LAC C 0.01 0.0 0.0% 101 20 Marcin Gortat PHX C -0.00 0.1 37.5% 102 21 Joakim Noah CHI C -0.00 0.0 0.0% 106 22 Marcus Camby POR C -0.00 0.0 0.0% 107 23 Brendan Haywood DAL C -0.01 0.0 0.0% 108 24 Nene Hilario DEN C -0.01 0.1 30.0% 109 25 Ben Wallace DET C -0.01 0.0 0.0% 110 26 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA C -0.01 0.0 0.0% 111 27 Chuck Hayes HOU C -0.02 0.0 0.0% 113 28 Samuel Dalembert SAC C -0.02 0.1 0.0% 116 29 Andrew Bogut MIL C -0.04 0.1 0.0% 118 30 JaVale McGee WAS C -0.04 0.1 0.0% 120 31 Roy Hibbert IND C -0.06 0.1 0.0% 121 32 Tim Duncan SAS C -0.06 0.1 0.0% 124 33 Dwight Howard ORL C -0.10 0.1 0.0% 134 34 DeMarcus Cousins SAC C -0.17 0.4 25.0% 158 35 Spencer Hawes PHI C -0.28 1.1 36.5%
Post comment as

I've reached out to Brian Skinner about taking his price of anarchy model to the real NBA world. I haven't gotten his feedback yet but I just thought that there might be a connection between what I was thinking about there and your shot location adjusted marginal scoring project. I don't have the energy to explained or pursue it all right now but I'll ask if you think you have the ability and the potential interest to provide PSLAMs data splits for players when 1 or more other players are on the court or when they are in a specific 5 man lineup. If you did then the connection could be become pretty important for thinking about team level optimal usage and shot locations in addition to your current look at player level efficiency.

Yeah, that's definitely something I'm thinking about. Also, defensively, one can look at the distribution of shot locations when various lineups are on the floor. I used to think that all this could only be done if we knew the precise distances at which shots are taken, but I think the inside/mid-range/3-pt classification should be a close enough proxy to be useful.