Thunder Rolls through Memphis in 7

Led by James Harden and Nick Collison, OKC managed to topple Memphis in 7 games. Yes, I realize that's one of the stranger things I've said on my blog. The stats tell me that Harden (a combination of offense and defense) and Collison (primarily defense) actually led OKC in WARP during the series. And that they had the highest ezPM100 ratings, by quite a large margin. Well, I have to admit that I didn't get to watch a lot of this series, so maybe that's just a really crazy fluke. Those kinds of things can certainly happen in short series. Looking at some of the individual game box scores, Durant and Westbrook did have some poor shooting performances, though. And, overall, OKC won this series with above-average defense and just average offense/rebounding. Gasol and Randolph lead Memphis, which seems reasonable.

 Western Conference Semi-Final: OKC vs. Memphis

NAME TEAM POS POSS GS WARP EZPM EZPM100 OFF O100 DEF D100 REB REB100 ORR DRR OEFF USG OWN OEFG
4.18 30.25 -5.46 48.47 -12.75
James Harden OKC 2 394 0 1.35 30.30 7.69 17.95 4.56 14.88 3.78 -2.53 -0.64 18.18% 72.22% 21.45 21.25% 20.81 48.48%
Nick Collison OKC 4.5 296 0 1.00 22.53 7.61 3.60 1.21 16.43 5.55 2.50 0.85 53.13% 58.54% 11.39 10.67% 26.69 41.07%
Kevin Durant OKC 3 506 7 0.74 7.09 1.40 -2.42 -0.48 9.55 1.89 -0.04 -0.01 29.17% 72.86% -1.70 28.12% 17.59 49.29%
Russell Westbrook OKC 1 453 7 0.64 5.52 1.22 5.34 1.18 -8.06 -1.78 8.24 1.82 40.63% 85.19% 2.73 43.13% 22.96 48.13%
Serge Ibaka OKC 4.49 330 7 0.35 0.45 0.14 -6.89 -2.09 9.94 3.01 -2.59 -0.78 34.62% 54.29% -13.42 15.57% 32.73 46.15%
Eric Maynor OKC 0.99 175 0 0.18 0.12 0.07 2.80 1.60 -3.98 -2.27 1.31 0.75 36.36% 75.00% 6.24 25.63% 15.43 55.00%
Nazr Mohammed OKC 4.98 166 0 0.15 -0.69 -0.42 -4.43 -2.67 6.67 4.02 -2.93 -1.77 44.00% 46.15% -21.23 12.57% 21.08 38.10%
Royal Ivey OKC 1.5 13 0 0.12 3.51 27.03 2.99 23.01 0.52 4.02 0.00 0.00 0.00% 100.00% 193.00 11.92% 23.08 50.00%
Thabo Sefolosha OKC 2.01 246 7 0.11 -4.62 -1.88 -8.73 -3.55 6.49 2.64 -2.38 -0.97 25.00% 63.16% -26.74 13.28% 21.54 45.65%
Daequan Cook OKC 1.99 178 0 0.00 -5.81 -3.26 -7.68 -4.32 2.86 1.61 -0.98 -0.55 16.67% 71.43% -28.27 15.27% 23.60 42.86%
Nate Robinson OKC 1.49 13 0 -0.01 -0.80 -6.18 3.33 25.65 -3.86 -29.69 -0.28 -2.14 0.00% NA 76.49 33.54% 23.08 125.00%
Kendrick Perkins OKC 5 370 7 -0.47 -27.35 -7.39 -11.31 -3.06 -2.97 -0.80 -13.08 -3.53 42.65% 40.85% -29.34 10.41% 26.76 51.41%
2.34 -29.05 -47.49 5.68 12.75
Marc Gasol MEM 4.98 477 7 1.24 23.99 5.03 -0.44 -0.09 16.34 3.42 8.09 1.70 58.02% 52.87% -0.46 20.12% 9.85 69.23%
Zach Randolph MEM 4 504 7 0.90 12.15 2.41 -2.46 -0.49 2.57 0.51 12.05 2.39 49.28% 67.14% -1.80 27.12% 16.87 58.73%
Shane Battier MEM 2.5 308 0 0.46 4.59 1.49 -4.08 -1.33 4.05 1.31 4.62 1.50 38.24% 75.00% -11.36 11.67% 26.62 53.68%
Greivis Vasquez MEM 1.03 137 0 0.18 1.24 0.91 6.75 4.93 -5.28 -3.85 -0.24 -0.17 28.57% 70.00% 24.47 20.15% 24.82 44.64%
Hamed Haddadi MEM 4.99 43 0 0.13 2.75 6.40 -1.69 -3.94 3.42 7.95 1.03 2.39 40.00% 66.67% -16.63 23.67% 20.93 40.00%
O.J. Mayo MEM 2 418 2 0.10 -10.63 -2.54 -2.79 -0.67 -10.92 -2.61 3.08 0.74 26.47% 86.36% -3.35 19.94% 20.81 66.15%
Tony Allen MEM 2.01 320 7 0.09 -7.77 -2.43 -18.21 -5.69 9.86 3.08 0.58 0.18 28.57% 71.43% -27.58 20.63% 22.81 47.92%
Leon Powe MEM 4.01 17 0 0.04 0.77 4.52 0.04 0.26 -0.35 -2.04 1.07 6.29 50.00% 100.00% 1.18 22.29% 17.65 50.00%
Sam Young MEM 2.49 222 5 0.03 -6.34 -2.86 -12.38 -5.58 7.56 3.40 -1.52 -0.68 17.86% 81.82% -29.52 18.89% 24.32 50.00%
Ishmael Smith MEM 1.01 12 0 -0.04 -1.83 -15.27 -1.44 -12.03 -0.67 -5.56 0.28 2.32 NA 100.00% -65.90 18.25% 0.00 NA
Mike Conley MEM 1 495 7 -0.14 -21.02 -4.25 1.86 0.38 -13.57 -2.74 -9.31 -1.88 14.29% 57.58% 1.44 26.13% 30.91 46.67%
Darrell Arthur MEM 3.99 192 0 -0.64 -26.95 -14.04 -12.65 -6.59 -7.33 -3.82 -6.98 -3.63 30.00% 33.33% -28.13 23.41% 21.88 62.50%

7 thoughts on “Thunder Rolls through Memphis in 7”

  1. I am somewhat troubled that Durant shot 59% TS% on high usage with very low turnovers and yet got a negative 0100. Did his relative low assist% and assisted by % do him in on the metric as currently calibrated?

    1. I think the assisted field goals may have a lot to do with it.

      LAST AFG2 AFG3 UFG2 UFG3 AST2 AST3
      Durant 32 13 15 1 6 4
      Westbrook 6 1 48 4 40 13
      Harden 5 8 15 1 19 9

    2. So, I think USG is obviously a bigger issue. The question is how do you really account for it? Do you give points simply for having higher usage? That's easy enough in ezPM. But how to cross-validate? When I tried correlating with RAPM, usage didn't seem to have much of an effect. Could usage in the playoffs be more important? Where would I get the data to show that in an independent way? I don't know if the sample size is large enough for looking at playoff data alone. Maybe we could ask Jerry about that.

      Durant's USG in this series was 28%. High, but not incredibly so. Westbrook's USG was 41%. Much higher. Yet his TS% was 52%. Not so great. Should he be rewarded more than Durant for that extra 13% points in usage? I'm not sure that makes sense.

      1. "Could usage in the playoffs be more important?"

        It is a decent question to ask and try to answer. Time and data permitting.

        If I have something more to put out there that might be useful, I'll add it later.

  2. Harden had a 3 %point better TS% but on barely half the usage. Nearly twice the assist% but twice the turnover%. Dunno assisted by %. Harden is 124 on Offensive Rating to Durant's 123. And yet on O100 the difference is huge.

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