For each playoff series I calculated ezPM for the regular season matchup between the two teams (4 games in each sample, except for MIA-PHI, which only played 3 games against each other). I then made a prediction about minutes based on recent play and the previous matchups, and calculated WARP based on the regular season ezPM sample and minutes prediction. The closer a team is to 1 WARP, the better chance they have of winning. Home court advantage is not included in the WARP calculation.
It's going to be really interesting to see exactly how George Karl allocates minutes. The Nuggets go 10 deep, and in fact, that's not including Mozgov, Forbes, or Koufos, all of whom I expect may see some pt during this series. At any rate, according to my WARP estimation, OKC has the advantage (0.717 vs. 0.382). Based on previous matchups this year, Gallinari and Martin should perform well for Denver, while Sefalosha (defensively), Durant, and Harden lead the way for OKC. I won't be surprised if Westbrook struggles a bit.
The City Prediction: Thunder in 6
| NAME | TEAM | POS | POSS | GS | WARP | PRED_MIN | PRED_WARP | EZPM100 |
| Danilo Gallinari | DEN | 3.5 | 149 | 2 | 0.61 | 28 | 0.218 | 9.63 |
| Kenyon Martin | DEN | 4.01 | 221 | 4 | 0.49 | 36 | 0.154 | 3.69 |
| Nene Hilario | DEN | 4.51 | 273 | 4 | 0.45 | 36 | 0.113 | 1.80 |
| Ty Lawson | DEN | 0.99 | 230 | 2 | 0.38 | 30 | 0.095 | 1.81 |
| Raymond Felton | DEN | 1 | 127 | 0 | 0.16 | 24 | 0.058 | 0.55 |
| Chris Andersen | DEN | 4.5 | 31 | 0 | 0.03 | 18 | 0.033 | -0.43 |
| J.R. Smith | DEN | 2.01 | 175 | 1 | -0.29 | 18 | -0.057 | -8.83 |
| Arron Afflalo | DEN | 2 | 128 | 2 | -0.16 | 24 | -0.059 | -7.65 |
| Al Harrington | DEN | 4 | 136 | 0 | -0.58 | 8 | -0.066 | -17.29 |
| Wilson Chandler | DEN | 3.49 | 112 | 2 | -0.35 | 18 | -0.107 | -13.52 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | OKC | 2.01 | 214 | 4 | 0.86 | 28 | 0.216 | 9.48 |
| Kevin Durant | OKC | 3 | 318 | 4 | 0.81 | 38 | 0.185 | 4.70 |
| James Harden | OKC | 2 | 190 | 0 | 0.52 | 30 | 0.159 | 5.41 |
| Serge Ibaka | OKC | 4.49 | 196 | 2 | 0.38 | 36 | 0.133 | 2.71 |
| Nick Collison | OKC | 4.5 | 174 | 0 | 0.46 | 20 | 0.101 | 5.02 |
| Russell Westbrook | OKC | 1 | 264 | 4 | 0.15 | 38 | 0.040 | -1.72 |
| Eric Maynor | OKC | 0.99 | 110 | 0 | 0.14 | 8 | 0.020 | 0.70 |
| Nazr Mohammed | OKC | 4.98 | 57 | 0 | -0.09 | 12 | -0.037 | -8.69 |
| Kendrick Perkins | OKC | 4.99 | 94 | 2 | -0.16 | 30 | -0.099 | -9.08 |
[...] thought this series might be closer (picked OKC in 6), but it looks like those who said Denver was better built for the regular season may been onto [...]