For each playoff series I calculated ezPM for the regular season matchup between the two teams (4 games in each sample, except for MIA-PHI, which only played 3 games against each other). I then made a prediction about minutes based on recent play and the previous matchups, and calculated WARP based on the regular season ezPM sample and minutes prediction. The closer a team is to 1 WARP, the better chance they have of winning. Home court advantage is not included in the WARP calculation.
Miami's predicted WARP is 0.79 compared to 0.31 for the 76ers. That's a very large advantage for Miami. Predicted WARP leaders for Miami are Wade (0.442), James (0.180), and Bosh (0.177). Thaddeus Young is predicted to be the lone standout for Philly (0.121).
The City Prediction: Miami in 4
| NAME | TEAM | POS | POSS | GS | WARP | WARP36 | PRED_MIN | PRED_WARP | EZPM100 |
| Dwyane Wade | MIA | 2 | 218 | 3 | 1.256 | 0.398 | 40 | 0.442 | 15.10 |
| LeBron James | MIA | 3.5 | 231 | 3 | 0.542 | 0.162 | 40 | 0.180 | 4.07 |
| Chris Bosh | MIA | 4.5 | 222 | 3 | 0.512 | 0.159 | 40 | 0.177 | 3.95 |
| James Jones | MIA | 2.99 | 119 | 0 | 0.367 | 0.213 | 16 | 0.095 | 6.46 |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas | MIA | 5 | 50 | 1 | 0.085 | 0.118 | 14 | 0.046 | 2.01 |
| Mario Chalmers | MIA | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 16 | 0.036 | 0.25 |
| Joel Anthony | MIA | 4.97 | 108 | 1 | 0.036 | 0.023 | 16 | 0.010 | -2.41 |
| Mike Miller | MIA | 2.51 | 41 | 0 | -0.067 | -0.113 | 12 | -0.038 | -8.77 |
| Erick Dampier | MIA | 4.99 | 31 | 1 | -0.049 | -0.110 | 14 | -0.043 | -8.65 |
| Mike Bibby | MIA | 1.01 | 57 | 1 | -0.109 | -0.132 | 32 | -0.117 | -9.65 |
| Thaddeus Young | PHI | 3.5 | 151 | 0 | 0.319 | 0.146 | 30 | 0.121 | 3.32 |
| Andre Iguodala | PHI | 2.5 | 220 | 3 | 0.173 | 0.054 | 38 | 0.057 | -0.96 |
| Louis Williams | PHI | 1.5 | 139 | 0 | 0.181 | 0.090 | 22 | 0.055 | 0.70 |
| Jodie Meeks | PHI | 1.98 | 104 | 1 | 0.070 | 0.046 | 36 | 0.046 | -1.33 |
| Jrue Holiday | PHI | 1 | 182 | 3 | 0.067 | 0.025 | 36 | 0.025 | -2.31 |
| Evan Turner | PHI | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0.088 | 0.053 | 12 | 0.018 | -1.02 |
| Spencer Hawes | PHI | 5 | 119 | 3 | 0.027 | 0.016 | 26 | 0.011 | -2.76 |
| Elton Brand | PHI | 4.5 | 210 | 3 | -0.015 | -0.005 | 36 | -0.005 | -3.74 |
| Andres Nocioni | PHI | 3.03 | 65 | 0 | -0.207 | -0.219 | 4 | -0.024 | -13.76 |
[...] picked Miami in 4. Here’s what I had predicted: Miami’s predicted WARP is 0.79 compared to 0.31 for the [...]