Eastern Conference Round 1 Preview: Heat vs. 76ers

For each playoff series I calculated ezPM for the regular season matchup between the two teams (4 games in each sample, except for MIA-PHI, which only played 3 games against each other). I then made a prediction about minutes based on recent play and the previous matchups, and calculated WARP based on the regular season ezPM sample and minutes prediction. The closer a team is to 1 WARP, the better chance they have of winning. Home court advantage is not included in the WARP calculation.

Miami's predicted WARP is 0.79 compared to 0.31 for the 76ers. That's a very large advantage for Miami. Predicted WARP leaders for Miami are Wade (0.442), James (0.180), and Bosh (0.177). Thaddeus Young is predicted to be the lone standout for Philly (0.121).

The City Prediction: Miami in 4

NAME TEAM POS POSS GS WARP WARP36 PRED_MIN PRED_WARP EZPM100
Dwyane Wade MIA 2 218 3 1.256 0.398 40 0.442 15.10
LeBron James MIA 3.5 231 3 0.542 0.162 40 0.180 4.07
Chris Bosh MIA 4.5 222 3 0.512 0.159 40 0.177 3.95
James Jones MIA 2.99 119 0 0.367 0.213 16 0.095 6.46
Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 5 50 1 0.085 0.118 14 0.046 2.01
Mario Chalmers MIA 1 10 0 0.012 0.080 16 0.036 0.25
Joel Anthony MIA 4.97 108 1 0.036 0.023 16 0.010 -2.41
Mike Miller MIA 2.51 41 0 -0.067 -0.113 12 -0.038 -8.77
Erick Dampier MIA 4.99 31 1 -0.049 -0.110 14 -0.043 -8.65
Mike Bibby MIA 1.01 57 1 -0.109 -0.132 32 -0.117 -9.65
Thaddeus Young PHI 3.5 151 0 0.319 0.146 30 0.121 3.32
Andre Iguodala PHI 2.5 220 3 0.173 0.054 38 0.057 -0.96
Louis Williams PHI 1.5 139 0 0.181 0.090 22 0.055 0.70
Jodie Meeks PHI 1.98 104 1 0.070 0.046 36 0.046 -1.33
Jrue Holiday PHI 1 182 3 0.067 0.025 36 0.025 -2.31
Evan Turner PHI 2 115 1 0.088 0.053 12 0.018 -1.02
Spencer Hawes PHI 5 119 3 0.027 0.016 26 0.011 -2.76
Elton Brand PHI 4.5 210 3 -0.015 -0.005 36 -0.005 -3.74
Andres Nocioni PHI 3.03 65 0 -0.207 -0.219 4 -0.024 -13.76

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