Eastern Conference Round 1 Preview: Celtics vs. Knicks

For each playoff series I calculated ezPM for the regular season matchup between the two teams (4 games in each sample, except for MIA-PHI, which only played 3 games against each other). I then made a prediction about minutes based on recent play and the previous matchups, and calculated WARP based on the regular season ezPM sample and minutes prediction. The closer a team is to 1 WARP, the better chance they have of winning. Home court advantage is not included in the WARP calculation.

As members of the Knicks, Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups only played once against Boston this year, and didn't play that well. So, for those two players, I used their season average WARP ratings, giving them the benefit of the doubt with such a small sample size. With that modification, Boston still comes out ahead in WARP 0.84 vs. 0.57. But given that these two teams have really only played once since that big trade (not counting the last game of the season, which saw all the major stars sit), you can probably throw these ratings out the window.

The City Prediction: Boston in 6

NAME TEAM POS POSS GS WARP WARP36 PRED_MIN PRED_WARP EZPM100
Paul Pierce BOS 3 230 3 0.801 0.240 36 0.240 7.74
Kevin Garnett BOS 4.01 195 3 0.601 0.213 36 0.213 6.45
Glen Davis BOS 3.99 205 1 0.529 0.178 30 0.148 4.84
Troy Murphy BOS 4.02 60 0 0.336 0.386 8 0.086 14.58
Nenad Krstic BOS 5 96 2 0.164 0.118 18 0.059 2.02
Jeff Green BOS 4 98 1 0.130 0.091 22 0.056 0.78
Ray Allen BOS 2 236 3 0.086 0.025 38 0.026 -2.33
Rajon Rondo BOS 1 242 3 0.030 0.008 40 0.009 -3.11
Delonte West BOS 1.51 22 0 -0.000 -0.001 12 -0.000 -3.54
Landry Fields NYK 2.01 271 4 0.554 0.141 36 0.141 3.10
Carmelo Anthony NYK 3 66 1 -0.059 0.109 40 0.121 -6.39
Chauncey Billups NYK 1.01 64 1 -0.040 0.111 36 0.111 -5.54
Ronny Turiaf NYK 4.5 123 2 0.254 0.142 20 0.079 3.15
Jared Jeffries NYK 3.02 64 0 0.065 0.070 28 0.054 -0.24
Amare Stoudemire NYK 4 266 4 0.115 0.030 38 0.031 -2.11
Roger Mason NYK 1.99 95 0 0.106 0.077 12 0.026 0.09
Bill Walker NYK 2.98 79 1 0.126 0.110 8 0.024 1.65
Toney Douglas NYK 1.02 175 1 -0.063 -0.025 12 -0.008 -4.66
Shawne Williams NYK 3.52 91 0 -0.044 -0.033 10 -0.009 -5.05

One thought on “Eastern Conference Round 1 Preview: Celtics vs. Knicks”

Leave a Reply