Question 1: Between Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, who do you think takes a higher percentage of their shots with less than 10 seconds left on the shot clock?
Question 2: Which player (Curry or Ellis) shoots a higher eFG% with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock?
Surprised? I kind of am.
(Note: The data are available at 82games.com. Unfortunately, they only give eFG%, not TS%, which would be even more useful.)
Here are the numbers:
|11 – 15||23%||61.6%||24%||43.3%|
|16 – 20||21%||64.3%||24%||49.6%|
Conventional wisdom holds that very early (21+) and very late (<10) are bad shots. That is clearly the case for Curry. His worst eFG% are at either end. Ellis bucks conventional wisdom. In fact, his best shots, by far, appear to be with less than 10 seconds. What’s so surprising about this in my mind is that the excuse many Warriors fans give for Monta’s overall less-than-stellar shooting efficiency is that he is forced to carry the load on offense — and part of this is taking bad shots at the end of the shot clock.
In fact, what one should take away from this table is that A) Curry is the one who appears to be taking way too many late shots (is he the one who is really carrying the load?) and B) Ellis actually would appear to be more efficient when he is “the last hope”. It should be clear that Curry needs to take shots earlier in the possession, and that Ellis should be the one who gets the ball at the end of possessions. At least, that’s what the numbers are telling me. Like I said above, kind of surprising, right?